Saxo-Market-Call_Platform_1920x1280_Test 5

Putting together an AI Bubble Basket - who should be in or out?

Podcast 23 minutes to read
Saxo Logo
Saxo Market Call

Summary:  The market is taking Oracle at its word in its longer term guidance on cloud infrastructure growth potential. We wonder instead whether an AI bubble is incipient here and if so, which dozen or so stocks should be in the "AI Bubble Basket" we are considering identifying as a talking point from here. Also on today's pod, a discussion of other key single stock news and Adobe earnings incoming tonight, the key macro data incoming, gold correction risks, the US political storm set to intensify on the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.


Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

The AI Bubble Basket stock list.

As mentioned on today's podcast, but now with fifteen stocks that I would argue belong in an AI Bubble Basket if we do indeed have an AI bubble on our hands. Plenty more to discuss on this front in future posts and we will track this once the basket contents are set on an equal-weight basis. Please let me know your thoughts on additional names (of a reasonably large size) you think belong or don’t belong on the list by commenting on this post by commenting on the John J. Hardy substack version of this post.

Candidates for the AI Bubble Basket

  • The obvious Mag7 candidates: Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta

  • Others: Oracle, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, KLA Tencor, Lam Research, Coreweave, Arista Networks

  • The bubbliest: Applovin, Palantir

Today’s Links

Another shoutout to eurointelligence.com, one of the best sources of commentary on European issues, which get insufficient play in the English-language press.

Another shoutout, this one to Wolf Richter’s Wolfstreet.com, which provides excellent perspective on US economic data, particularly on housing. Thanks for a quick answer to my query yesterday, Wolf!

As we absorb yesterday’s PPI and today’s CPI, worth considering the US manufacturing Prices Paid versus final demand figures to emphasize the tax-like, potentially stagflationary impact first round effects of tariffs.

Ben Hunt at Epsilon Theory has a unique framework for commenting on our current age, as he argues that there is no turning back on the path we are headed down, which is toward financial repression, protectionism and … socialism? I do agree that the breaking of constitutional precedence is the most remarkable perhaps in US history and that the mid-term elections next year could trigger a profound constitutional crisis.

Michael Every is out with an update that scores how things are proceeding with the US’s “Grand Macro Strategy” - a useful framework for understanding US- and Trump administration policy in this new era.

Chart of the Day - Oracle (ORCL)

The Chart of the Day can’t be anything else today: Oracle’s move yesterday was perhaps the most remarkable day in market history for a single stock as Oracle shares added more the 250 billion in market cap, rising nearly 36% after exceeding a 40% ramp intraday. (I can’t think of any comparisons for a company approaching Oracle’s size). This far exceeds Nvidia’s stunning response to its early 2023 earnings report, when the stock jumped 24% the following day after noting an acceleration in data center sales. The company went on to more than triple its revenues over the ensuing 12 months on demand for its AI chips. A Barrons headline perhaps put it best “ Oracle May Be Having Its Nvidia Moment. Or It Could Be a Repeat of 1999.” Indeed, the stakes are high and the wriggle room limited for Oracle and all AI stocks from here after a move like this.

11_09_2025_ORCL
Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.


Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.