Asia Market Quick Take – November 10, 2025

Asia Market Quick Take – November 10, 2025 

Key points:  

• Macro: US shutdown nears end as Democrat supports deal to reopen govt. 
• Equities: US stocks ended a three‑week winning streak 
• FX: USDCAD sold off breaking below 1.4050 
• Commodities: WTI remains below $60 while gold edges higher above $4,000 
• Fixed income: Treasury yield curve steepened; Canadian bonds fell on strong jobs data 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.  

 Macro:  

• The U.S. government shutdown nears its end as moderate Senate Democrats support a deal to reopen the government, Bloomberg reports. The agreement funds Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, and Congress for a year, with other agencies funded through January 30, and restores furloughed workers' pay. A Senate vote could happen Tuesday, with final passage later if bipartisan support holds. Senate Majority Leader Schumer calls it a critical step, while House Speaker Johnson stresses ending the impasse. Negotiations on border security and budget limits continue.
• China has lifted its ban on exporting "dual-use items" such as gallium, germanium, antimony, and super-hard materials to the US, effective until November 27, 2026. The suspension also includes checks on graphite exports. Previously announced in December 2024, this follows the suspension on additional export controls for rare earth materials and lithium battery components.
• China has exempted Nexperia chips from export controls for civilian use to alleviate supply shortages for carmakers, according to Reuters. This marks a significant move by Beijing to reduce pressure on the auto industry following Dutch control of Nexperia, owned by China's Wingtech. While civilian use wasn't clarified, German and Japanese firms report resumed chip deliveries.
• China's consumer prices rose 0.2% year-on-year in October 2025, rebounding from September's 0.3% drop. Non-food inflation increased due to trade-in programs and Golden Week spending. Housing, clothing, healthcare, and education prices continued to rise, while transport costs fell at a slower rate. Food prices saw the smallest decline in three months at -2.9%. Core inflation reached a 20-month high at 1.2%. Monthly consumer prices also rose 0.2%, the highest in three months.
• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 50.3 in November, below October's 53.6 and forecasts, due to concerns over the prolonged US government shutdown. The Current Economic Conditions Index reached a record low of 52.3, and the Consumer Expectations Index dropped to 49.0. Sentiment declined across most groups, except for top stock owners, who saw an 11% confidence boost. Inflation expectations were mixed: short-term increased to 4.7%, and long-term decreased to 3.6%.
• US median one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.2% in October 2025 from 3.4%, while three- and five-year expectations remained at 3.0%. Home price growth held at 3.0% for the fifth month. Commodity expectations fell for gas (-0.7 points to 3.5%) and food (-0.1 point to 5.7%). College costs rose by 8.2% (+1.2 pp), medical care by 9.4% (+0.1 pp), and rent by 7.2% (+0.2 pp).
• Canada's unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October 2025 from 7.1%, against expectations. Employment increased by 66,600 jobs to 21,015,300, while unemployed persons decreased by 49,200 to 1,557,300. Core-aged men's unemployment fell to 6%, and youth unemployment dropped to 14.1%. Long-term unemployment stayed at 21.3%, similar to last year.

Equities:  

• US - US stock futures rose on Monday as lawmakers seemed close to resolving the lengthy government shutdown. Senate Majority Leader John Thune suggested a budget deal could soon reopen the government through January. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has requested TSMC to increase chip production due to rising AI demand, while Pfizer has agreed to acquire Metsera for as much as $10 billion, outbidding Novo Nordisk. On Friday, US stocks rebounded from early losses, ending mostly higher due to optimism that Congress might resolve the government shutdown. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones each increased by 0.3%, while the Nasdaq remained flat as pressure persisted on AI companies. Gains were led by consumer defensive and energy sectors, with Exxon Mobil, T-Mobile, and Coca-Cola each rising over 2%. However, the tech sector faced challenges from concerns about stretched AI company valuations, leading to Tesla dropping 4% and declines of 2% for Meta and Oracle. Tesla shareholders have approved Elon Musk's compensation plan, which could be worth up to $1 trillion, receiving over 75% support.
• EU - European stocks closed sharply lower on Friday, with the STOXX 50 down 0.8% and STOXX 600 falling 0.6%, amid worries over AI stock valuations and various corporate updates. Rightmove dropped nearly 12% after predicting flat revenue growth for 2026, while IAG fell 7.3% due to reduced net profit and stagnant revenue. Novo Nordisk slipped 2.3% after increasing its bid for Metsera and agreeing to cut obesity drug prices with US President Trump. On the positive side, ITV surged almost 15% on news of potential talks to sell its media business to Sky for £1.6 billion, and automakers like Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz saw gains after China lifted an export ban on Nexperia chips. For the week, STOXX 50 fell 1.7% and STOXX 600 dropped 1.2%.
• HK - Hang Seng index fell 0.9% to 26,242, reversing a 2% rally from the day before, following weak trade data from China. Exports in October dropped 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first decline since February, while imports grew only 1%, the slowest in five months, due to subdued domestic demand. Tech stocks led sector declines amid doubts about AI-driven gains, with Pop Mart Intl down 6.4% and Kuaishou Tech off 6.2%. Despite these losses, the index rose 1.3% for the week, buoyed by strong Q3 foreign inflows into mainland stocks and optimism over U.S.-China relations after an extended trade truce.

Earnings this week: 

• Monday: Paramount Skydance; CoreWeave; Maplebear; Barrick Mining; Occidental Petroleum 
•  Tuesday: Sea; SoftBank; Sony
•  Wednesday: Cisco; On; Singtel
•  Thursday: Disney; Applied Materials; Brookfield; Tencent; JD.com

FX: 

• On Friday, the Dollar Index dropped to 99.4, influenced by weak sentiment data and rising inflation expectations. Heavy selling benefited global currencies, despite the shutdown limiting data. The Dollar briefly regained on reopening hopes but fell after compromise rejection.
• CAD rose sharply as employment increased by 66.6k, lowering the unemployment rate to 6.9%. Gains were driven by part-time jobs. USDCAD fell to 1.4040.
• GBP, EUR, and CHF gained from the Dollar's weakness, with the CHF additionally benefiting from haven appeal. The GBP rose for a second day despite the BoE's dovish stance, reflecting Dollar softness over UK-related factors.
• AUD gained on higher copper prices and cross-demand, while the NZD underperformed amid risk aversion and cautious RBNZ comments.

Commodities: 

• Oil steadied as traders weighed glut risks and the impact of US sanctions on Russia ahead of a data‑heavy week. Brent remained above $63 a barrel and WTI below $60, with OPEC and IEA outlooks due.

• Gold edged higher as markets weighed US economic weakness against progress towards ending the government shutdown. Bullion hovered near $4,017 an ounce after finishing last week little changed. It rose on Friday after US consumer sentiment fell towards a record low, with the shutdown and rising prices clouding the outlook.

Fixed income:  

• US Treasuries ended Friday mixed, with the curve steepening as the long end weakened late ahead of next week’s auctions of new 10‑ and 30‑year bonds. Front‑end maturities led earlier gains after a soft University of Michigan sentiment reading, and Fed‑dated swaps priced in a touch more easing. Canadian bonds slumped on strong jobs data, while equivalent US figures were delayed for a second month by the government shutdown. Japan government bond futures fell for a third day, with the December contract down 20 ticks to 135.66.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.  

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