Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Head of FX Strategy
Summary: Bank of Japan’s pivot away from negative rates is becoming a baseline view ahead of Tuesday’s announcement, but gains in the Japanese yen could remain limited by dovish commentary and risks of a hawkish surprise by the Fed the next day. Two-way risks for the dollar this week as markets anticipate a hawkish shift in dot plot, but CHF sees downside risks as SNB can surprise with a rate cut or stronger FX language. GBP also has a lot at stake this week with BOE meeting vote split and Nvidia-driven equity momentum in focus.
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