Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
Technical Outlook - US Industry and Sector analysis
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Medium-term analysis of some of the main Industries and Sectors in USA. Charts are all weekly time period and ETF’s are being used.
This Sector and Industry analysis is planned to be updated bi-weekly and/or when there are some interesting developments. This analysis is planned to be with just short comments and explanations with direction and key support and resistance levels.
Semiconductor
Inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern is still in the process of unfolding its potential. Potential target at around 501.
SOXX closed last week the 434.42 resistance confirming the upside potential to 500.
If price closes below the 396 the uptrend has reversed and the Neckline of the S-H-S pattern is very likely to being tested and a close below the Neckline will demolished the upside picture.
Inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern is still in the process of unfolding its potential. Potential target at around 501.
SOXX closed last week the 434.42 resistance confirming the upside potential to 500.
If price closes below the 396 the uptrend has reversed and the Neckline of the S-H-S pattern is very likely to being tested and a close below the Neckline will demolished the upside picture.
Industrial
Range bound. Bounced from lower range support at 96.30 and 55 weekly Moving Average. If closing below Industrial is likely drop to around 90 i.e., 200 MA. Close above 104.20 likely new highs
Energy
Energy jumped back above resistance at 82.65. Weekly RSI didn’t close below 40 gave upside energy for a strong bounce. If RSI closes back above its falling trendline and above 60 expect Energy to test previous highs around 93-95.
If closing the gap and back below 82.65 bear trend is likely to unfold.
Oil & Gas
Bearish break out of triangle.
After a test of the rising trendline Oil & Gas failed to close above but instead got rejected and seems to resume downtrend.
RSI rejected at its falling trendline suggest Oil & Gas could drop back to March lows at around 114.58 but a new low should not be ruled as indicated by the arrows.
Metals and Mining Industry
Has broken below lower rising trendline in the Rising Wedge like pattern only to bounce from key support at around 48.48. However, Metals do not seem to be able to close above 53.50 resuming downtrend.
If Metals & Mining closes below 55 weekly Moving Average 48.48 is likely to be tested A close below 48.48 could fuel another sell off down around 40.
A close back above the lower falling trendline is likely to result in Metals and Mining to resume uptrend
Financial
Financials has bounced strong past couple of weeks but the downtrend is intact supported by RSI showing negative sentiment which is an indicating of lower levels. A close above 34.56 will demolish the bearish picture.
Transportation
Transportation broken bearish out of rising channel pattern. Bounced from key support at around 211.48. To resume uptrend a close above 238.75
Technology
Broken above medium-term falling trendline and has established an uptrend. A close above resistance at around 152 will pave the way for 164
RSI above 60 confirming the uptrend.
Materials
Materials should be considered range bound. RSI still positive indicating the break below support 76.66 is a false break. Range: 75.50 for 65.00 – 84.60 for 90.61
Utilities
Utilities need to close above 68.80 for further bounce/upside to around 72.50-75.00.
For now 55 weekly Moving Average seems to be a resistance.
A close below the 200 weekly Moving Average is likely to result in Utilities extending downtrend with 2022 lows around 60 as first target.
RSI is showing negative sentiment that could accelerate if RSI breaks back below 40. For Utilities to reverse the downtrend a close above 72.50 is needed with first indication of that scenario to play out would be a close above 68.80
Utilities need to close above 68.80 for further bounce/upside to around 72.50-75.00.
For now 55 weekly Moving Average seems to be a resistance.
A close below the 200 weekly Moving Average is likely to result in Utilities extending downtrend with 2022 lows around 60 as first target.
RSI is showing negative sentiment that could accelerate if RSI breaks back below 40. For Utilities to reverse the downtrend a close above 72.50 is needed with first indication of that scenario to play out would be a close above 68.80
Retail
Bearish trend. RSI is still showing positive sentiment, however, indicating what we are seeing could just be a correction. But if Retail cannot close back above 200 MA the outlook is bearish with a potential move to 55 support. 55 weekly Moving Average putting a lid on the upside potential.
Health Care
Strong bounce but RSI still below 40 i.e., negative sentiment, needs to close above 60 to reverse to bullish.
Health Care rejected at the 0.618 retracement and seems a bit indecisive at the moment. If sliding back bellow 130.50 down trend is likely to resume
A Sector close above 134 will reverse the downtrend. A close below 129.57 downtrend is likely to resume
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