Another tough week ahead for stocks? US inflation and neocloud earnings set the tone

Markets face a potentially challenging combination next week: US inflation, a fresh examination of the AI investment boom and the political consequences of the Democrats’ midterm victory. After the technology sell-off, investors need reassurance both that earnings expectations can withstand greater scrutiny of data-centre expansion and that inflation will allow central banks some breathing room. Tuesday’s US CPI report is the main macro event, while CoreWeave, SoftBank, Nebius and Applied Materials put different parts of the AI supply chain under the microscope.

Macro & Eco Data

US inflation arrives on Tuesday at 1.30pm GMT, with an unusual complication: the absence of October 2025 observations means the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish annual changes for affected indices due to the federal government shutdown last year. That puts greater emphasis on the monthly headline and core readings, their composition and the recent run of underlying inflation.

Headline CPI is seen slowing to 0.3% month on month from 0.6%, with core inflation easing to 0.2% from 0.3%. Friday’s producer prices are also expected to moderate, to 0.4% headline and 0.3% core. The Cleveland Fed's Nowcasting model indicates the monthly increase as low as 0.2% rounded. Friday's PPI report will add another layer to the inflation story.

For equities, the distinction between lower energy inflation and broader disinflation will matter. A softer headline number may offer immediate relief, but persistent services inflation would leave the Federal Reserve’s problem largely intact. Friday's hot jobs numbers mean markets price roughly 75% chance the Fed hikes again in December.

Central-bank commentary will help determine how those figures are interpreted. The diary includes Fed governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday, NY Fed president John Williams and San Franciso Fed's Mary Daly on Thursday, and Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson on Friday. Investors will be listening for whether policymakers see financial-market weakness as a meaningful tightening of conditions, or remain primarily concerned about inflation. Tuesday’s Bank of England and Its Watchers conference also brings together senior policymakers from the Fed, ECB and BoE.

In Britain, Thursday’s GDP release at 7am GMT includes the first estimate of third-quarter growth as well as September’s monthly figure. This is an important distinction: the quarterly number measures the economy’s accumulated momentum, while September offers better sense of how it entered the final quarter. Both releases cover the period before the late-October Budget.

The backdrop has changed following the Bank of England’s decision on 5 November to raise Bank Rate by a quarter-point to 4%. The Bank cited persistent energy pressures and a more resilient economy, while warning that inflation could reach around 5% by mid-2027. Next week’s growth figures therefore matter for the debate over further tightening. A strong report could support sterling through higher rate expectations while presenting a less comfortable backdrop for rate-sensitive domestic shares.

Expectations sit around 0.7% quarterly growth, alongside an unchanged monthly GDP reading for September. That combination would suggest a strong quarter overall but softer momentum at its end. Andrew Bailey speaks on Monday at 5.25pm GMT, followed by Clare Lombardelli at 12.30pm and Huw Pill at 6.30pm on Tuesday. Their explanations of the latest decision will be important for gilts and sterling before the GDP numbers arrive.

China opens the week’s major data sequence with CPI and PPI on Monday, followed by trade figures on Tuesday. Consumer inflation is forecast at 0.8% annually but producer inflation of 5.4%. Trade and the forthcoming credit figures will offer further clues about external demand and domestic financing. For investors, the implications extend to the renminbi, industrial commodities, European exporters and London’s mining shares.

The Eurozone's principal growth update comes on Friday, with the next estimate of third-quarter GDP and the first quarterly employment reading. The pairing will help establish whether output growth is translating into labour demand. Germany’s final CPI on Wednesday and the French and Spanish inflation releases in the supplied Friday diary provide additional detail, although final inflation estimates would normally need a meaningful revision to alter the policy debate. Euro-area inflation came in hot, reaching 4.0% in October 2026 from 3.8% in September, driven mainly by a sharp 20.8% surge in energy prices and steady core inflation at 2.5%. This brings another rate hike on to the table, but only if growth holds up enough.

Earnings

After Thursday's epic obliteration of AI stocks – a process that has been well underway before the capitulation - it's another hurdle with some interesting earnings updates.The earnings calendar offers a particularly useful test of AI expectations because it spans financing, cloud capacity, networking and semiconductor equipment. Neocloud CoreWeave reports on Tuesday, while Japan's SoftBank Group – a major AI investor - also reports that day. Nebius, another neocloud name badly scarred by the selloff, reports before the US market opens on Thursday, while Applied Materials and Cisco are also scheduled for Thursday.

For CoreWeave and Nebius, the central questions are how quickly contracted demand becomes revenue, how much capital is needed to deliver it and whether financing keeps pace with expansion. Critically, what do management guide on the earnings call about the pace of data centre building now the Democrats will soon control Congress. SoftBank’s investment commitments and funding plans will provide another perspective on the capital available to the sector. Applied Materials will be scrutinised for semiconductor spending intentions, while Cisco’s orders and outlook can help distinguish durable networking demand from ambitious customer spending plans. Across the group, strong reported growth may offer limited reassurance if guidance raises fresh questions about cash generation or project timing.

Also look to some interesting thematic stories with quantum stocks – D-Wave and Rigetti are on the tape on Tuesday, whilst space stocks like Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are reporting on Monday.

There is a busy slate of large and mid-cap earnings updates come from the UK, with housebuilders, defence stocks and brewers, among others. Highlights includeKainos, DCC Energy, Oxford Instruments, Watches of Switzerland, Fuller Smith & Turner, ICG, ITV, Spirax, Taylor Wimpey, Burberry, 3i Group, Endeavour Mining, Kier, Persimmon, Premier Foods, Qinetiq, Rolls-Royce, United Utilities, WH Smith, Wizz Air and Land Securities.

Politics & Geopolitics

Politics remains closely connected to the earnings debate. Congress returns on Monday, but the Democrats’ new majorities won't take office until January. Plenty of time therefore for Republicans to push through a couple of bills. Democratic lawmakers are preparing proposals on AI safety, liability and electricity costs associated with data centres, according to Reuters. Presidential opposition remains an obstacle to legislation – Mr Veto as Trump calls himself now, but committee investigations and hearings could still influence corporate decisions. Investors will need to distinguish proposed restrictions from measures with a credible route into law.

Geopolitical attention centres on US-mediated Russia–Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November, which have been confirmed by the Kremlin. Any substantive progress on security arrangements or de-escalation could affect European risk sentiment, energy prices and defence shares, although we are a long way off a deal. Focus will remain on Iran and whether the scolding by voters makes President Trump think about ending things. European leaders then meet in Dublin on 12–13 November, providing a further opportunity for discussion of security and strategic priorities.A G7 foreign ministers' meeting and the opening of COP31 are on Monday. Energy security, sanctions and credible financing commitments will be the market-relevant outputs.. Before the trading week begins, New Zealand votes on Saturday 7 November, with the outcome and any coalition negotiations a potential catalyst for the New Zealand dollar.

One practical consideration: US bond markets close on Wednesday for Veterans Day, interrupting the week immediately after CPI, meaning potentially thinner liquidity for the session elsewhere.