headerFinalV

Three AI earnings, one big question: who keeps the profits?

Equities 5 minutes to read

Key takeaways

  • AMD, Arista and Supermicro show that AI infrastructure demand remains strong, despite recent market doubts.
  • Their different profit margins show why growing sales do not translate equally into shareholder returns.
  • Watch customer spending, competitive pressure and cash generation, not just the next upbeat forecast.

The AI boom has a long shopping list: powerful chips, servers to house them and networks to connect them. But who makes the most money?

On 3 November 2026, AMD, Arista Networks and Super Micro Computer delivered better-than-expected results (versus Bloomberg consensus) and optimistic forecasts. Investors welcomed them after doubts about AI spending. Demand looks healthy, but profits are another matter.

Three pieces of the same puzzle

AMD makes processors for AI systems and computers. Data-centre sales almost doubled, while its forecast exceeded expectations. AMD is gaining ground, although Nvidia remains the leading supplier of specialised AI chips. AMD also challenges Intel in conventional server processors, giving it more than one route to growth.

Arista supplies the networks that allow thousands of processors to communicate. Bigger AI systems need faster connections. Its strong growth and improved forecast show that the boom extends beyond chips. Its networks can support chips from different manufacturers, rather than depend on one winner.

Supermicro assembles chips and cooling equipment into ready-to-use servers. Sales more than tripled from a year earlier, and management raised its annual forecast. Together, these results show customers still ordering across the infrastructure chain.

The same boom, very different businesses

Strong demand does not create equal profits. Consider gross margin, the share of sales remaining after direct production costs. For each dollar of revenue, Arista kept roughly 64 cents, AMD 54 cents and Supermicro 13 cents. These are not final profits, but the gap matters.

Arista combines hardware with network-management software. AMD designs valuable chips but competes with Nvidia and its established software ecosystem. Supermicro operates closer to assembly, where competition can leave thinner margins. Arista also relies on spending by a relatively small number of powerful cloud customers.

One customer accounted for 44% of Supermicro's quarterly sales. That creates risk if orders slow. Its margin also fell from the previous quarter, while operations consumed cash. Sales are not the same as cash in the bank.

Who pays for the AI shopping list?

These results suggest AI investment remains robust. They cannot prove whether the cloud companies funding it will earn attractive returns. Slower AI adoption, rising financing costs or disappointing returns for customers could eventually curtail orders. Memory shortages may also raise costs for other technology businesses. A strong forecast cannot guarantee returns when share prices already assume rapid growth.

Investor playbook

  • If AI spending keeps rising: compare profit margins and cash flow alongside sales growth.
  • If spending slows: examine dependence on a few customers and the strength of each company's competitive position.
  • If share prices race ahead: ask how much future growth investors already expect.

The receipts matter more than the shopping list

The three reports confirm that AI's shopping list is still getting longer. That is encouraging for suppliers and explains why investors welcomed the forecasts.

But the important question for investors is not simply who receives the biggest order. It is who can deliver it profitably, withstand competition and turn sales into cash over many years.

AMD, Arista and Supermicro occupy different parts of the same industry, yet their economics are far from identical. The AI boom can be real, while the investment outcomes remain very different.

The shopping list is growing. The receipts still deserve a careful read.

This content is marketing material. 

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Market Ltd. (SCML) provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice or a recommendation.

SCML content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

SCML partners with companies that provide compensation for promotional activities conducted on its platform. Some partners also pay retrocessions contingent on clients investing in products from those partners. 

While SCML receives compensation from these partnerships, all educational and research content remains focused on providing information to clients.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. SCML does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is part of the J. Safra Sarasin Group.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992