Summary: Today we wax extremely cautious on the market, which has too aggressively climbed the wall of worry of late even if we were to pretend that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had not happened (many market have come full circle since that momentous and tragic event). That's because we also need to consider the implications of a much tighter Fed going forward, margin pressures and other factors. We also look at worrying signs of market dysfunction, from the recent nickel blow-up, to chaos in a VIX-tracking ETF and commodity traders struggling to raise enough capital. The three worry-warts on today's pod are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck.
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The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
