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Podcast: Surge in confirmed COVID-19 deaths spook markets

Podcast

Summary:  The contours of a rebound yesterday were shattered first on new US regulation hitting Huawei and other Chinese technology companies and then rapidly surging confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Florida spooking the market. This is driving a renewed uncertainty over demand destruction as indicators suggest consumers are again changing behaviour in the Sun Belt states. Oil is following oil lower confirming our $30-40/brl range for now. We also talk about copper momentum driven by supply constraints from copper mines shut down in Chile due to COVID-19. We also talk about the Q2 earnings season starting next week and which got off to a bad start with Walgreens earnings yesterday missing estimates by 30%. Today with Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Listen to today's podcast and check out the slide deck. 

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We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
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MACRO

Monthly Macro Outlook: Getting things done

The COVID-19 has left deep market scars. Among the main global indexes, only U.S. indexes are in positive territory on a year-to-date basis (+0.65% for the S&P 500 and +20.62% for the Nasdaq). Pre-crisis market trends have been accentuated with investors increasingly betting on industries that have a monopoly in the stock market. In the age of rising market power, only six well-known high tech stocks now represent around 49% of the Nasdaq. Over the past few months, we have observed a rotation into momentum stocks (i.e. consumer staples, which are usually more resilient in period of recession) and growth stocks, which are associated with listed companies that are growing earnings. This phenomenon is especially visible in the U.S. and in emerging markets. While stocks show a steady green in the U.S., the bond market continues to flash a red light about the state of the economy. History teaches us that smart money tends to be right more often than equity investors. Said differently, the balance of risks lie to the downside for the equity market in H2 if, as we expect, the V-shaped market narrative fails to materialize.

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