Morning Brew September 4 2026

Good morning.

Monday is a market holiday in the U.S. and Canada, with both exchanges closed.

I was only away for a day, but the picture has changed: dovish comments from Christopher Waller, renewed focus on possible Japan intervention and upside surprises in Swiss economic data.

Today’s key event is the U.S. labour-market report at 14:30 CET. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 56,000 in August after falling by 23,000 in July, but the range of estimates is wide, from -25,000 to 120,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, while annual wage growth is seen slowing to 3.0% from 3.2% in July.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said his September rate decision will be “heavily influenced” by the August CPI data due on 11 September. He urged markets to “give disinflation a chance”, pushing pricing for a September hike down to roughly even odds from near-certainty earlier in the week.

U.S. equities rallied on Thursday after Waller’s dovish-leaning remarks. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,747.71, its best session in a month, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% to 26,584.06 and the Dow added 1.2% to 53,686.11. All Magnificent Seven names closed higher, with Microsoft up 2.7% and Nvidia gaining 1.8% after announcing the acquisition of AI platform Hugging Face. Robinhood surged 16.6%, the largest single-stock move in the index. After hours, Adobe slipped after naming a new CEO, Oxford Industries fell on a guidance cut and Lululemon dropped after cutting its full-year forecast again.

European equities followed the global risk-on tone, helped by lower bond yields after Waller’s remarks. European bonds also rallied, with the German 10-year yield down 3 basis points to 3.35% and the UK 10-year down 7 basis points to 5.16%. Ned Davis Research cut U.S. stocks to underweight and upgraded Europe ex-UK to overweight, citing relative valuation and earnings optimism. Germany’s SPD backed EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, adding a trade-policy overhang for autos. Volkswagen’s board approved a restructuring plan to cut 50,000 jobs and close up to four plants; the shares are indicated  1.3% higher.

The USD Index came under pressure from Waller’s comments and the stronger yen, easing to around 99 after testing 100 earlier in the week. EUR/USD is at 1.1625, GBP/USD at 1.3530 and USD/JPY at 156.40.

The yen is heading for its strongest week in more than a month as traders increase bets on a Bank of Japan hike and wait for today’s U.S. payrolls data. USD/JPY briefly traded as low as 155.25 before settling around 155.70; the yen is on track for a weekly gain of around 2.5%.

Gold jumped as much as 2.9% on Thursday to above USD 4,500, its biggest intraday move since 19 August, helped by the weaker dollar and Waller’s dovish comments. The GLD ETF saw its largest one-day inflow since 16 January. This morning, gold is trading around 4,475 and silver around 66.75. Bitcoin is near 81,000, up almost 5%. The 200 day moving average is in play in Gold, is it only 1% away.

In Switzerland, economic data surprised to the upside. Inflation doubled in August after fuel prices rose sharply, with petroleum products up 25% as the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global oil and gas supply. GDP also rose more than expected, with the 2.8% reading clearly above the 1.7% estimate. The SMI rose modestly, while the Swiss franc strengthened to around 0.9390 against the euro and 0.8080 against the dollar.

The U.S. July goods and services trade gap widened by 24.4% month-on-month to USD 88.6 billion, the largest since early 2025, driven by an 11.4% rise in capital-goods imports.

The U.S. carried out a second round of strikes against Iran this week, keeping oil prices elevated and inflation concerns alive. President Trump said renewed attacks would be “short-lived”, offering some relief to markets mid-week. Oil remains high at 91.45 in New York and 95.50 in London.

Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura said he is “ready to continue the currency battle” after the yen’s sharp rally. Rising Bank of Japan hike expectations also supported the move.

JD Vance said the United States is investigating a deadly strike on an Iranian wedding earlier this week, after a Reuters analysis suggested it likely resulted from a direct hit by a U.S. munition.

Watch for the Nonfarm Payrtoll today but also position adjustments ahead of the long weekend and any agreeing or opposing comments to Wallerst statements yesterday. We are no closer to a resolution in the middle east and it has become very quiet regarding the fallout on a global level.

Trade safely.

Friday, 4 September 2026

Macro: Euro-area retail sales; U.S. nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings; Canada employment report.

Monday, 7 September 2026
Macro: Germany industrial production; euro-area GDP; U.S. and Canada closed for Labor Day.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap focus.

Tuesday, 8 September 2026
Macro: Japan final Q2 GDP.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap focus.

Wednesday, 9 September 2026
Macro: China CPI and PPI.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap focus.Thursday, 10 September 2026

Macro: Germany final CPI; U.S. PPI and initial jobless claims.
Central banks / speakers: ECB rate decision and press conference.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap focus.Friday, 11 September 2026

Macro: UK GDP; U.S. CPI; preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap focus.