Morning Brew September 17 2024

Good morning.

Without any real inspiration, yesterday was a boring day for traders, and that showed in low volumes. We ended the day 10% below the 20-day average.

Intel and Microsoft will be the stocks to watch today, Intel was able to secure an order by Amazon, qualifies for federal grants  and has announced to delay the factory in eastern Germany, shares jump 8%  in late trading. Microsoft announced a share buyback to the Tune of 60 billion USD.

Apple was under pressure after reports of slow preorders of the iPhone 16.

Indexes closed friendly with Nasdaq and Dow rising slightly more than 0.5% the S&P gains 0.13%. The Dow Jones hit a new record yesterday.

The Nikkei is under pressure due to the strong Yen. The Index is trading at 36000 after the yen gained 13% from the low in the last two months.

The Dollar Index remains low and is at the last real support before we would test the psychologically important 100. EURUSD is above 1.11, GBPUSD above 1.32 and USDJPY 140.60.

Gold and Silver are holding at 2576 and 30.75 after little moves yesterday, oil traded higher.

Today we are expecting some fairly important data with the German ZEW and the US Retail Sales likely the most important, the key question remains the rate decision tomorrow though.

Rate traders are trading 10 cuts of 25 basis point in the next 12 months, the most important message tomorrow will likely be the fact THAT the fed starts it`s cutting cycle and maintains the dovish outlook more than the question if they do 25 or 50 basis points.

John Hardy published the next US Election Update: With seven weeks to go, the election outcome is as uncertain as ever. This week, markets have both eyes on the Federal Reserve and whether it kicks off the first rate cutting cycle since the pandemic with a large or small cut.

Charu takes a look at how to play a new Fed cycle : Fed Rate Cuts Are Coming: An ETF Playbook

With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates, it’s time to consider how your portfolio is positioned for this shift. Rate cuts typically bring about significant changes in market behavior, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer a flexible way to adjust your portfolio accordingly. Let’s look at the sectors and ETFs that could be considered to help you navigate this new environment.

Trade safely!

Tuesday
- Data DE ZEW, US Retail Sales, Canada CPI US Industrial Production

Wednesday
- Data Japan Machine Orders UK CPI, EU HICP US Rate Decision

Thursday
- Data Australia GDP & Unemployment, UK & Turkey Rate decision, US Initial Jobless Rate,
Earnings: Fedex
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, China & Japan Rate decision.

Physically Settled Futures (times GMT)

CLU4 will expire on 20/aug 1830 hrs

KCU4 will expire on 21/aug 1500 hrs

PAU4 will expire on 22/aug 1500 hrs

ZOU4 will expire on 22/aug 1500 hrs

VXQ4 will expire on 21/aug 1300 hrs

CCU4 will expire on 23/aug 1500 hrs

OJU4 will expire on 26/aug 1215 hrs

RCU4 will expire on 23/aug 0900 hrs

Expiring CFDs(times GMT)

COFFEENYSEP24 will expire on 20/aug 1500 hrs

COCOANYSEP24 will expire on 22/aug 1500 hrs

PALLADIUMSEP24 will expire on 21/aug 1500 hrs