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Morning Brew October 31 20285
Good Morning,
Please be ware that the key economic release, the PCE deflator may or may not be cancelled. The website if the publishing agency BEA has not been updated and some sources indicate the release will take place, others do not show it. Therefore, if it were to be released, it may take traders by surprise.
The recent dollar rally was underpinned by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone, dampening expectations for a December rate cut, and pulled the US Dollar Index to a three-month high. We are trading at 99.50. The Japanese yen weakened notably, pressured by the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance and cautious comments about delaying further rate hikes, right now 154. . The euro and British pound are 1.1570 and 1.3150 by firmer Eurozone data and steady UK earnings reports. Overall, volatility was subdued, with markets digesting the Fed’s recent policy moves and geopolitical developments around US-China trade talks
Gold and Silver defy the stronger USD and are trading 49.10 and 4007.
The US500 is at 6865, the US Tech 100 NAS 26029 and the US 30 48525. `The Nikkei is above 52k and the GER40 24085.
Meta was a significant detractor yesterday, losing 11.3% for their biggest one-day drop in three years after forecasting "notably larger" capital expenses
Apple reported Q3 2025 revenue of $94 billion, up 10% year-over-year, led by strong growth in iPhone (+13%), Mac (+15%), and Services (+13%); the gross margin was also above expectations. Shares gain 4% on the release after hours. Tim Cook said he expexts stromg sales of the IPhone 17 for the holidays. https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/aapl-earnings-31102025
Amazon announced Q3 revenue of $180.2 billion, up 13% year-over-year, with AWS surging 20% and advertising revenue jumping 24%; the stock rallied sharply, surging by 11% as results outperformed expectations, especially thanks to AWS and ad segment strength. It added app 300 billion in Market cap. https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/amazon-q3-results-31102025
Tokyo’s core inflation accelerated to 2.8% year on year in October
ECB held rates for the third time in October as expected and Lagarde said risks were declining due to the trade deal with the US, the Sino/US Trade truce and the Gaza ceasefire
We are ending a very fascinating October today, beware of a possible PCE release that might take traders by surprise – otherwise, the EU Inflation is the most important event of the day and Month end adjustments can cause market moves as usual.
Trade safely
Key data today
Friday, Oct 31 EU Inflation, U.S. PCE - U.S. Chicago PMI (Oct) - Canada GDP (Aug) -
Exxon, Linde, CBOE