Morning Brew October 23 2025

Good Morning:

Equities traded lower yesterday on news in the trade tensions.

• The Trump Administration is considering considering a plan to curb a wide array of exports to China, from laptops to jet engines.
• Ther was no progress in US Russian negotiations yesterday, over night the US imposed sanctions on major Russian Oil companies.

US Indexes gave up between half and one percent, ahead of Tesla earnings, Netflix lost 10% in value after earnings, Texas Instruments 5.6% . Volumes were massive at 24 billion shares versus the average near 20.

Tesla reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 22, revealing record revenue but weaker profitability. The company generated $28.1 billion in revenue, up 12% year over year and above analyst expectations of about $26.4 billion. However, earnings per share came in at $0.50 missing consensus forecasts of roughly $0.55. Operating income dropped 40% to $1.6 billion, with margins narrowing to 5.8% due to price cuts, higher costs, and the expiration of U.S. federal EV tax credits. Net income totaled $1.37 billion, while Tesla ended the quarter with a robust $41.6 billion in cash and investments. Record deliveries of 497,000 vehicles ahead of the tax credit expiration fueled sales, but profitability suffered as lower-margin models. After hours the stock traded to 422 from a close of 438.

SAP reported strong earnings after the bell but shares are a little lower.

Gold and Silver seem to have stabilized at 4090 and 48.50 – putting the selloff into perspective, year to date we are up 55 and 67 % respectively. Bitcoin is below 110k at 108700.

US 10 Year Yields are calm below the 4% level at 3.95%. The low yield despite record-high stock prices, tight credit spreads, high inflation imply that investors follow Powell's guidance that the Fed`s focus is on employment, not inflation. The USD Index is on the 99 level as EURUSD broke below the 1.16 to trade 1.1595, GBPUSD is 1.3338 and USDJPY 152.40.

EURCHF is worth watching as we are trading at the lowest levels in history (with the exception of the outliers on Jan 15 2015) this is not comfortable for the SNB but the Swiss National Bank will likely refrain from setting lower levels again in a Euro crisis…

The Interest rate decision in December may be interesting even if the expectation is firmly in favor for no change (80%)

Acc to Reuters, the normal release of initial Jobless claims today has been cancelled.

Trade safely in a market likely to be driven by earnings and politics

Oct 23 Thu: US - Initial Claims, Home Sales, Canada Retail Sales, EU Consumer confidence
American Airlines, Honeywell, Intel, Newmont, Ford,

Oct 24 Fri: UK - Retail Sales Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, International PMI, Eurozone - Markit Manufacturing PMI, US CPI & PMI

P&G,