Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew October 23 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning

Friday we saw a burst of risk off sentiment and it will be very interesting to see of the sentiment holds. Fintwit is gloom and doom, calling for a black Monday like in 1987 but we are also approaching the end of October up for a test of the old golden rule Sell in May and go away but remember to come back in November.

Cause of the move on Friday was rising yields – the 10 year is basically at 5% - and a curious disconnect that the USD Index seems to not follow yields at the moment. That basically means that traders are no longer willing to buy Dollars even if pays more.

On Friday, the Dow was down 0.9%, the S&P 500 down 1.3% and the Nasdaq down 1.5%, Regional Banks lost 3.5%. The Volatility index closed at its highest level since March 24th. The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index is in a precarious spot.

The US 500 broke the 200 day line to the downside while Silver closed above the 200d Moving average and is currently trading right on it.

The Dollar Index is stuck below 106 at the moment with EURUSD trading a 1.0580, GBPUSD 1.2150 and USDJPY 149.93. USDCHF and EURCHF are 0.8953 and 0.9470. Gold is trading at 1975 and needs to break the 2000/2050 for a clear break but it is has broken out against the Yen, the Yuan and the Aussie. Bitcoin has broken above the 30k and is trading at 30750.

Foxconn, a major supplier of Apple is facing a tax probe in China in what may be a further attempt to restrict Apple`s  Sales in China.

We are heading into a busy week with earnings, economic data and central bank decisions while the geopolitical situation remains tense: Israel is attacking Hamas and China sent warships to the middle east. Reactions to the war in the middle East seems to be dominating western politics as well – conservatives were biggest gainer in the Swiss elections yesterday. Last but not least, Jim Jordan dropped out of the race for Speaker of the house, leaving US politics in mayhem.

Please be sure to follow our strats team to stay up to date

https://www.home.saxo/insights

ontinue to trade carefully and consider options for directional bets, moves are fast and sharp and great on the right side while painful on the other.

Key Events this week:

Monday

- Data, Israel Rate decision,  EU Consumer Confidence,
- Earnings Philips,  Logitec,

Tuesday
- Data: Australia, Japan, France, Germany, EU, UK, US PMI,
- Earnings Coca Cola, Verizon, GE, 3m; Spotify, GM, Microsoft, Google, Snapchat, Visa, Texas Instruments,

Wednesday
- Data: Australia CPI, DE IFO, Canada Rate decision
- Earnings Boeing, ThermoFischer, T-Mobile, Hilton, General Dynamics, Meta, IBM, Service Now, Mattel,

Thursday
- Data Japan PPI, Turkey Rate decision, ECB Rate Decision, US Durable Goods and GDP Advance,
- Earnings UPS; Northrop Gruman, Merck, Amazon, Intel, Ford,

Friday
- Data US Core PCE, University of Michigan
- Earnings Exxon, Chevron,

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.