Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew November 29 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Loads of Expiries - will teh Dollar end the month as weak as it currently looks -or??
Good Morning
Investment Legend Charlie Hunger passed away at 99 years old.
============= Watch out for Futures Expiries today============
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was "increasingly confident" that the current central bank benchmark interest rate will prove adequate to lower inflation to the Fed's 2% target. This statement pushed tey year yields lower to 4.28 now.
This boosted equities a little and weakened the dollar a little more. The US500 is trading at 4558 now, the US tech100NAS at 16022 and the GER40 at 15992.
The Dollar Index fell to the lowest since August to 102.63 now, EURUSD is at 1.10 spot on, GBPUSD is at 1.2720 and USDJPY 147.09.
Gold had a very strong day yesterday and rose to 2044 on breaking the resistance at 2015 while Silver is trying to breach the 25. Traders are watching if Gold will close a month above the 2000 mark for the first time in history. We have 38 hours and 2% room.
Oil also gained 2% and copper 1% after Panama is shutting a major copper mine. Bitcoin breached the 38000 to an 18 month high.
Amazon.com announced a new AI chip for its cloud computing service but failed to excite traders, shares drop 0.5% while Tesla was the big winner yesterday, up 4.5%.
Koen started a great new format on Options that focusses on volatilities: This guide lists expected movements and implied volatility rankings of stocks with upcoming earnings, key indices, and ETFs. It’s useful for investors, options traders and those interested in post-earnings moves.
From a longer term perspective, Peter wrote on the cyber security industry has been the second best performing theme in equity markets this year driven by strong demand and higher profitability. CrowdStrike reports earnings today with analysts remaining bullish expecting revenue growth of 34% and new record on free cash flow.
With non-top tier data on the agenda, speeches by Thomas Barkin (16:00 CET) Loretta Mester (19:45cet) and the Feds Beige Book at 20:00 will be closely watched but the PCE deflator tomorrow will be the key decisive factor in the month end.
Key Events:
Wednesday
- Data EU Consumer Confidence, Germany CPI, US GDP 2nd Estimate
- Earnings Snowflake, Okta, Pure Storage, Dollar Tree,
Thursday
- Data China PMI, Norway GDP, Swiss KOF , France CPI, Germany Unemployment, EU Inflation, US PCE & Initial Jobless Claims, Canada GDP
- Earnings Royal Bank of Canada, Dell, Marvell
Friday
- Data Japan Unemployment Rate, China Caixin PMI, International PMI, Canada Unemployment rate
- Earnings National Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
FLGZ3 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
GCZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
HGZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
KEZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
SILZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
SIZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
TNZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
TTFMZ3 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 10:00 GMT
UBZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
XCZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
XWZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
Z3NZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZBZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZCZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZFZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZLZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZMZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZNZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZTZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZWZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
HOZ3 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
RBZ3 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
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