Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew November 21 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning

A well received 20 year Bond Auction causes yields to decline, this in turn boosts equities  while weighing on the US Dollar.

Indexes closed higher, the Dow +0.6%,the  S&P 0.74% and the  Nasdaq 1.13% - Microsoft closed at a new all time high supported by the OpenAI drama enfolding to it`s benefit, Nvidia closed at an all time high ahead of the earnings after the bell tonight.

With the US 10 Ear Yields falling to below 4.40, the USD Index falls to 103.25 and is below the 200 day moving average.  EURUSD rises to 1.0956, GBPUSD 1.2525 and USDJPY declines to 147.50. Gold and Silver rise to 1991 and 23.70.

Crude oil prices extended gains and  Brent reached $82. Bitcoin is holding above 37k

Traders are now pricing in a 30% chance the Fed will start lowering rated already in March and 90 Bps of cuts are priced in by December 2024. Interestingly the ECB is seen to cut the same amount by December 24.

For today we expect little in terms of data, negotiations around a ceasefire in Gaza continue while fighting continues, The US Existing Home Sales and the Fed minutes tonight will be the most important event before the closely watched Nvidia earnings.

Let`s see if the strong mood holds…

Key events:

Tuesday
- Data:  Canada CPI, US Existing Home Sales FED Minutes

- Earnings Kohl`s, Best Buy, Nvidia. HP,

Wednesday
- Data  Japan Chain Store Sales, US Durable Goods orders, Initial Jobless claims, University of Michigan Sentiment
- Earnings John Deere,

Thusday
- Data Germany, France, UK, EU PMI, Turkish Rate Decision, THANKSGIVING
- Earnings

Friday
- Data Japan CPI, German GDP, IFO, Canada Retail Sales, US PMI, Black Friday
- Earnings

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

CCZ3 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

CTZ3 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

PAZ3 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

ZOZ3 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

NGZ3 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 08:30 GMT

Expiring CFDs

PALLADIUMDEC23 will expire 21 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

COCOANYDEC23 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

COTTONDEC23 will expire 22 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

NATGASUSDEC23 will expire 24 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

 

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