Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 27 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  CPI Day ahead

Good Morning

Traders are certainly at a loss about the current direction and what to look for. The Rate hike cycle seems to be done but the path forward seems unclear. While Goldman Sachs sees no significant rate cuts in 2024, UBS is expecting quite a few.

Economists polled by Reuters see a rate cut by the ECB only in July while Rate traders price in more than a full cut by June, almost full 2 by July and three in December

Today we are awaiting EU GDP, the German ZEW and the US CPI as the key releases, the annual CPI is expected at 3.3% and the Core at 4.1%.  Lisa Cook will speak at 14:50

US Indexes hardly moved yesterday with tiny volumes 20% below average. Boeing was the stock of the day after receiving an order for 100 planes from Emirates. Tesla added 4%.  This morning, Apple supplier Foxconn reported a surprise 11% increase in third-quarter profit hinting at good Apple sales.

FX was also fairly calm yesterday, the Yen remains worth watching as it is clearly in intervention territory. It After hitting a new high, Option trades pushed USDJPY lower and it is now holding at 151.65. If you are looking to bet on action by the BoJ, it might be a good idea to use options rather than outright exposure. You can try the FX functionality in the Option Strategy window  - you receive a choice price on one of the legs when you trade a call or put spread but feel free to get in touch to discuss that with us,  The EUR is back above 1.07 and GBPUSD 1.2290. Gold and Silver recovered to 1945 and 22.35. 

US Yields decline slightly but the Bloomberg US Treasury Index broke above the Bloomberg Global Emerging Market one for the first time in my memory.

The war in Israel caused the first major political fallout in Europe with a cabinet reshuffle in the UK. Rishi Sunak sacked the Home Secretary Suella Braverman and replaced her with James Cleverly who in turn will be replaced by James Cameron as Foreign Secretary. Especially countries with a high percentage of Muslim populations seem to be tested .

Fledgling U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson faces his first big legislative battle this week as his tries to marshal his fractious Republican majority into supporting an unconventional plan to avert a partial government shutdown beginning on Saturday.

Ole Hansen Commented on Commodities yesterday: as Goldman Sachs lowers its oil price forecast for next year.

Key Events

- Data:  UK Unemployment, Sweden CPI, EU GDP, De ZEW, US CPI

- Earnings Meituan, SMC, RWE, Mitsubishi UJF, Alcon, Home Depot,

- Data  Japan GDP, China Retail Sales, UK, IT & FR  CPI, US Retail Sales, PPI,
- Earnings Tencent, TJX, Cisco, Palo Alto, Target, Infineon, JD,

- Data Japan Trade Balance, Philly Fed Business Index, Initial Jobless Claim
- Earnings Siemens, Copart, Walmart, Ross Stores, Applied Materials, Alibaba.

- Data UK Retail Sales, EU HICP Final

- Earnings Johnson Controls International, Assicurazioni Generali, Tokio Marine


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.