Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning Brew November 13 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Little data today but key week ahead
Good Morning
Equities ended the week strong, pulled higher by the large caps, the S&P500 gained 1.3% in the week, the Nasdaq 2.4% and the Dow 0.7% - the main reason given is the calming of yields. Volumes were low at app. 10% below the average trading day.
While yields and the USD Index are fairly calm, the Yen hit a 1 year low and the BoJ should be getting ready to act – if they are following their usual pattern. The Yen trades as low as 151.80 while the USD Index is at 105.75 and the 10 year yield at 4.65.
Loser on Friday and were precious metals with gold at 1938, Silver below the 22.15 support at 22.10 and Platinum on support,.
On Friday, the University of Michigan Sentiment Index came lower than expected to60.4 vs 63.8. and the 1-year and 5-10-year inflation expectations increased by 20 bps to 4.4% and 3.2%. The 5-10-year inflation expectation reached the highest level since March 2011.
Moody’s changed the outlook on the US Government ratings to negative from stable.
China`s single day, the largest shopping event, provided meager growth only at 2%,.
After the hack of ICBC last week continues to worry as the fallout is being analysed. Retuers reports that the bank was forced to ask clients to trade at other venues.
Todays agenda is failrly empty, Lisa Cook will speaking at 14:50 and after the bad 30 year Bond auction and the negative outlook by Moody`s the 3 month bond auction as well as the Federal Budget at 20:00 will be the most significant events today.
In the night, the Australian Consumer confidence will be released and at 8 tomorrow morning the UK Unemployment rate.
For the rest of the week, Fed speakers, the US CPI tomorrow, China retail sales, UK CPI, the US CPI and also the meeting between Chinese President Xi and US President Biden will be closely watched.
Trade safely
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