Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew November 10 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Will Crypto Spill over? Will the CPI Save the day?


Good Morning,

The failure of crypto exchange FTX and the news that Binance would not step in to acquire the rival caused massive ripples in crypto. Bitcoin fell to a low at 15600 and can recover to 16700 just now.

The woes of crypto spilled to overall risk sentiment and boosted the US Dollar as safe haven. The USD Index rose back to above 110 to trade at 110.23 despite falling yields (confirming it is a safety move as opposed to the normal yield seeking one)

There continue to be worries of larger spillover effects and calls for Bitcoin to drop to 10 or even 5k.

US Indexes lost sharply with the S&P 500 -2.08%, the Nasdaq -2.48% and the Dow -1.95%, the GER40 was relatively stable at 13600.

EURUSD is trading just above parity at 1.0033. GBPUSD trades at 1.14 and USDJPY at 146.14.

The US Midterms so far do not provide a very clear impulse for the markets. Most interesting seems to be a loomig showdown between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis for the next presidential ticket.

Today, all eyes will be possible spillovers of FTX and then the US CPI at 14:30 CET. Traders and investors hoping for a year end rally will be expecting a number below 8 and a higher one would raise fears of a hawkish Fed for the December 15 Rate decision. Right now, the odds are even for 75 and 50 basis points.

Make sure to have your risk management under control, as always when everybody is maiting for a single moment, moves can be sharp.

 

  • Headlines:
  • Casualties in the Ukraine war are estimated to be 100k each side acc. to US sources
  • BoJs Kuroda said an exit from ultra-loose monetary policy will be based on increases in short-term interest rates and adjustments in the bank's balance sheet.
  • Meta Platforms Inc META.O said on Wednesday it would cut more than 11,000 jobs, or 13% of its workforce
  • Tesla fell more than 7% on the sales by Elon Musk
  • Disney dropped 13%.

 

 

Economic data:

Thursday: US CPI and Labor Data

Friday; DE HICP, UK GDP, Uni of Michigan sentiment

Earnings:

Thursday: Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Merck, Tokyo Electron, Engie, Becton Dickinson, AstraZeneca, Brookfield Asset Management, National Grid, TransDigm

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33
CH-8002
Zurich
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.