Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: The Day Traders have been waiting for
Good Morning,
Today will be a key day for the USD and Equities.
At 20:00 CET the FOMC will announce the Fed Fund Rate and a hike of 50 bps is expected with a 91% likelihood and 9% for 75 BPS. The difference between Inflation and the Fed fund rate has never been this large – the Fed is clearly behind the curve . The Decision and the following press conference will be the key events of the day.
This will likely make or break the markets as we are at decisive levels in the USD, Precious Metals and also Equities are looking for direction. God and Silver stabilized at low levels – 1864 and 22.55, the USD Index remains near 20 Year highs. For a more detailed technical update for gold and silver from Kim Cramer, our technical analyst, please click here
Equities move little yesterday and with all 3 US Indexes closing within 1% and the dax remains trapped around the 14000.
Oil moved a little higher over on news the EU is looking to stop importing Russian Oil in 6-9 months
The Bund Future lost a full point over night to trade at 152.60 and the US 10 Year remains at 3%.
Peter wrote a great article on Nutiren and it`s competitors:
Nutrien earnings in focus as food prices could destroy confidence: Food prices are up 34% y/y in March and potash (one of the ingredients in modern fertilizers) prices in North America are up 330% from the lows in 2020. Combined with high natural gas prices and various exports restrictions on phosphate the price on fertilizer is going through the roof causing lower crop yields and less profitability for farmers creating an ugly dynamic for food prices this year and potentially next year. We take a look at the underlying factors driving fertilizer prices and highlights the different companies within this theme.
Besides the FOMC we are expecting:
Consider your risk and exposure going into the FOMC, it will be a high risk event with the potential for sharp moves during the release as well as in the press conference.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
CK2 will expire on 6th May at 09:00 GMT.
FPK2 will expire on 11th May at 15:00 GMT.
Expiring CFDs:
GASOILUKMAY22 will expire on 10th May at 15:00 GMT.
OILUSJUN22 will expire on 18th May at 15:00 GMT.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.