Morning Brew May 2 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Sell in May and go away?
It was not a good month end on Friday, S&P 500 -3.63%, Nasdaq -4.17%, Dow -2.77%. Amazon ended the day 14% lower, Apple lost 3.7% and most of the heatmap was red. Facebook, Twitter and Tesla the big exceptions. The S&P 500 has lost four consecutive weeks and is down 13.3% in the year, the Nasdaq Composite fell 13% only in April.
Gold and Silver came under pressure and are currently trading 22.60 and 1883 and oil is a little lower over the weekend
EURUSD is at 1.0510 and GBPUSD 1.2550. it is a holiday in the UK due to May day being Sunday.
This week will be extremely busy with economic data and earnings. So far the earnings season has been strong on paper with 80% of companies beating expectations but the fact that heavyweights such as Amazon miss are pulling the market lower. Uncertain outlooks such as the one by apple add to the worries.
This weeks highlights ill be Blackrock today,
Tomorrow: BP, AMD, Pfizer, Airbnb
Wednesday: Moderna, Uber, Etsy,
In terms of economic Data, the highlights will be FOMC decision on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday and the Nonfarm Payroll on Friday, Today we had the German retail sales at 8 lower than expected, PMIs and EU Economic sentiment.
From a technical point of view by our Kim Cramer, all major indexes are down trends on short, medium term and longer term i.e. on Daily, Weekly and Monthly basis, the S&P 500 closed below key support at 4,164. Down trend confirmed. No strong support before around 3,815. Minor support around 4,056, the Dax is in a short term down trend. A daily close below 13, 566 will lead to test of March low at 12,438.
Besides earnings and the economic data mentioned, the situation in China remains worrying where the corona measures are not being eased and will likely cause supply chain issues. The War in Ukraine and sanctions will continue to be in the spotlight.
Trade safely and consider optionality for any sizeable positions.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.