Morning Brew May 19 2025

Good morning,

We are heading in a week I can only describe as Interesting:

There is a limited amount of key economic data and not too many key corporate releases but a massive load of news to expect and digest.

Last Friday, Equities ignored a not so good University of Michigan survey: it showed that Consumer Sentiment Index declined and one-year inflation expectations surged to 7.3% from 6.5% last month.

Equities ended the week on a friendly note with the big three US Indexes up above 0.5%, for the week, the S&P 500 gained 5.3%, the Dow 3.4% and the Nasdaq 7.2%. Vix at the lowest since March.

Then late Friday, Moody's cut the US top triple-A rating, citing rising debt, yields rise with the 10 Year at 4.51 and the 30-year testing the crucial 5% level.

Gold is strong this morning at 3226, Silver 32.41 USDJPY 145.15, EURUSD 1.1190 and GBPUSD 1.3308

After the talks between Ukraine and Russia were disappointing, Donald Trump announced to call the presidents of Russia and Ukraine while the threats against Russia to increase tariffs are rising, this will remain one of the key agenda items this week. In the night, Russia launched its largest drone attack on Ukraine since the start of the war

Israel resumed it`s attacks against Hamas in Gaza.

Donald Trump's tax-cut bill won approval from a key congressional committee yesterday.

Scott Besset spoke on the tariff negotiations yesterday and

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Walmart should "eat the tariffs" instead of blaming duties imposed by his administration

Britain is aiming to reset of ties with the European Union seeking closer collaboration on trade and defense to help grow the economy and boost security on the continent.

China`s data came mixed in the night, Industrial output beat expectations but Retail Sales missed at 5.1% vs 5.5%. expected.

It is a bit tricky to know what to focus on but I believe it will be news rather than economic data and the overriding investment question will be how yields will develop  and if US Shares – mainly in the form of the S&P500 will test all time highs, we are now 4% away.

Monday, May 19

- Economic:

  - China Retail Sales (Apr)

  - Eurozone: Final CPI (Apr)

  - Fed speakers: Bostic, Williams, Jefferson, Logan, Kashkari

Tuesday, May 20

- Economic:

-   - China Rate decision

  - Canada: CPI (Apr)

  - Eurozone: Consumer confidence

  - Fed speakers: Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Hammack, Daly

- Earnings:

  - Home Depot (HD)

  - Amer Sports (AS)

  - Bilibili (BILI)

  - Eagle Materials (EXP)

  - Viking Holdings (VIK)

  - Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

  - Toll Brothers (TOL)

Wednesday, May 21

- Economic:

  - Japan: Trade Balance)

  - UK: CPI (Apr)

  - US: Treasury 20-year auction, Fed speakers: Barkin, Bowman, Williams[2][5][7]

- Earnings:

  - Baidu (BIDU)

- Target (TGT)

 - WIX (WIX)

- Zoom (ZM)

- Snowflake (SNOW)

 Thursday, May 22

- Economic:

  - International PMI

- US: Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales (Apr)

  - Japan: Machine Tool Orders (Apr)

  - Japan: CPI (Apr)[2][5][7]

- Earnings:

  - Ralph Lauren (RL)

  - Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

  - Autodesk (ADSK)

  - Copart (CPRT)

  - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

  - Intuit (INTU)

  - Workday (WDAY)[6]

Friday, May 23

- Economic:

- Japan CPI 

- Germany GDP

- US: New Home Sales (Apr)

  - Canada: Retail Sales (Mar)

  - UK: Retail Sales (Apr)[2][5][7]

- Earnings:

  - Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)