Morning Brew May 15 2023

Good Morning.

We are kicking off an interesting week today with tomorrow most likely the key day.

We do not have too much key data except for the US Retail Sales on tomorrow and focus is likely to be on the debt ceiling talks that are continuing tomorrow and the regional Bank Crisis that seems to be far from over. Several Fed Speakers will possibly move markets through the week and Friday we start the G7 Meeting.

Friday we saw some profit taking but at the end of the day only small changes in Indexes with the big three US Indexes down but less than half a percent, the GER40 seems to have stabilized and looks to test the 16000 again at currently 15950. The US 500 trades at 4134 and key remains at eth 4200 so a way off. 

 Two year rates rise to 4% again, nevertheless the USD loses some ground with the USD Index declining from 102.70 to 102.55 now, EURUSD broke below the 50 SMA on Friday but is testing it again as we speak, the SMA is at 1.0875 and we are trading at 1.0872. GBPUSD is 1.2476 and USDJPY 136.12. Gold and Silver remain above key supports at 2015 and 24.05. Silver needs to hold above 23.75 for more upside and break 24.50.

Credit in the US is tight and could cause inflationary pressure and seems to be raising fears of a recession.

Oil remains under pressure with the CL Contract below 70. The CS/UBS takeover remains key a key topic in Switzerland and likely to remain so.

Trade safely

• Today
  Data: Sweden PMI
  Earnings: Meituan, SMC, Japan Post Bank, Bridgestone, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Recruit Holdings, Japan Post Holdings, Mizuho Financial Group, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Constellation Software

• Tuesday
  Data: China Retail Sales, UK Claiment Count, France GDP, EU GDP, DE ZEW, US Retail Sales, Canada CPI, US Industrial Production. Mester, Bostic, Barr speak.
  Earnings:Vodafone, Copart, Home Depot, Baidu,

• Wednesday: 
  Data: Japan GDP, EU HICP, US Housing Starts Bostic Speaks,
  Earnings:, Tencent Holdings Sea Ltd,Muenchener Rueckversicherung, Siemens, TJX Cos, Cisco Systems, Synopsys, Target, Experian

• Thursday: 
  Data: Japan Trade, AU Employment, US Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales, Barr and Logan Speak
  Earnings:  National Grid,  Alibaba Group, Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Walmart

• Friday: 
  Data: Japan CPI, CA Retail Sales
  Earnings: Deere Tokio Marine Holdings ,