Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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Morning Brew March 31 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Quarter end - will risk sentiment hold beyond the US Inflation data?
Good Morning,
Equities and risk sentiment had another good day yesterday but we are going into a day loaded with data that will decide how good of a quarter this will have been. US Indexes gained app. 0.5% yesterday, regional banks were the strongest losers while JD and Alibaba were the strongest gainers. JD.com announced to spin off parts of the company and this was received well. Volumes are noticeably low with 10.3 bio shares being traded in the US yesterday against an average of 12.7. Chinas` Manufacturing PMI fell versus February but came above expectations.
German Retail sales and import prices will be released at 8:00 together with UK and Danish GDP, Swiss Retail Sales at 9:00, EU HISP at 11:00 and at 14:30 the US PCE, expected at 4.7%, followed by the Chicago PMI at 15:45 and the University of Michigan Sentiment at 16:00.
As of now, the US 500is up almost 2% on the week to trade at 2056, the US Tech100 up 1.5% for the week at 12990, the GER40 15550 or up 3.5% this week.
EURUSD is testing the 1.09 as I am writing Cable is approaching the 1.23 at not 1.2390 and USDJPY 133.Gold and Silver gained to 1980 and 23.85 while bitcoin fell into rangebound trading and is meandering the 28k.Yields remain low with the 2 year at 4.1%, in March, the yield dropped the most since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Nvidia could gain further and is now up 87% YTD, Tesla 58.5% and Apple 25%
Next to the economic releases, commentary from bankers, central bankers as well as politicians could be significant as well as possible month end adjustments.
Donald Trump has been indicted by a grand Jury in New York and that topic while not that market relevant will keep the US occupied.
Enjoy an interesting trading day and keep your risk under control.
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