Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Commodities on the fly
Good morning,
Equities traded uninspired yesterday and US indexes closed a little in the red – but slightly. The US 500 is 5173, the US Tech 100 NAS at 18131. The GER40 is just below the 18k at 17970 and the Nikkei continues to show nerves ahead of the BoJ meeting next week.
FX moved only minutely yesterday, the USD Index is at 102.90 and 10 Year Yields at 4.20, EURUSD 1.0936, Cable 1.2788 and USDJPY 147.90, EURCHF is 0.9625 and USDCHF 0.8800.
Mover of the day were commodities, Silver added a full dollar from the Tuesday low to yesterdays high and remains near the 25 level (24.90) Gold also recovered losses after the CPI and trades at 2170.
Copper broke the 4 dollar mark for the first time in nearly a year and Cocoa remains near the all time high with a chart picture that looks like a tech stock.
The U.S. House passed a bill that gives TikTok's Chinese owner ByteDance six months to divest the U.S. assets of the short-video app, or face a ban.
Foxconn`s profit rose by 33%
For today we have the US PPI and Retail Sales on the radar alongside the usual labor market data, the PPI fina demand is seen at 1.1% and Retail Sales 0.8% and initial Jobless claims 218k.
Trade Safely.
Thursday
- Data Sweden CPI, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Initial Jobless Claims, PPI
- Earnings: AiA, Hapag Lloyd, Verbind Adobe, Wheaton PM,. Dollar Tree, RWE, Swiss Life, Rheinmetall
Friday
- Data France & Italy CPI, US Industrial Production
- Earnings: Vonovia, Jabil