Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew June 29 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Confidence wanes


 Good Morning,

A disappointing US Consumer confidence caused equities to slip yesterday, the expectation was 100.4 and 98.7 was released.

Indexes fell and overall risk sentiment declined.  The US Dollar gained across the board even if yields remained calm and traded lower.  The USD Index traded at 103.80 yesterday morning and rose to 104.55.

EURUSD fell to below 1.05 at 1.0493, GBPUSD to 1.2195 and Gold and Silver dropped to 1820 and 20.85. The Yen can rise against the USD on higher than expected retail sales.

The Dow fell 1.5%, the S&P500 fell 2% and the Nasdaq nearly 3. According to Reuters, the S&P is likely to suffer the largest first half decline since 1970, it is currently down 19.82%.

Turkey agreed to let Sweden and Finland join NATO

The EU agreed on laws to combat climate change by ending combustion engine cars from 2035 , and a multibillion-euro fund

The ECB is looking if it should quantify the upcoming bond-buying scheme, as the impact so far is not convincing.

Peter wrote a great comment on Nike , “Nike’s cautious outlook shows the consumer is hit by inflation” and the implication of the bleak outlook, it is worth a read, the stock had lost 7%.

Toyota announced it is missed the global production target for May, making it the third month in a row where supply chain issues and lockdowns in China disrupt the plans.

Today we are looking at the Spanish inflation data at 9, EU Sentiment at 11:00, German Inflation at 14:00, the US GDP at 14:30 ,  tomorrow,  UK GDP, Swiss KOF, German and EU Unemployment, German Price data, as well as US Consumption data Friday

H1 and Q2 adjustments are likely and as we saw yesterday with Nike, news drive the markets. Overall we remain in a bearish environment and need a strong move to pull us higher.

Remain diversified and manage risk actively.

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures:

CNM2 will expire 29th June at 8:35 GMT

RRN2, SILN2, SIN2, STFN2, XCN2, XKN2, XWN2, ZCN2, ZLN2, ZMN2, ZSN2 will expire 29th June at 15:00 GMT

RBN2, SBN2 will 30th June at 15:00 GMT

BZQ2 will expire 30th June at 18:30 GMT

Expiring CFDs:


CHINA50JUN22, HK50JUN22,SINGAPOREJUN22, TAIWAN95JUN22 will expire 29th June at 2:00 GMT

INDIA50JUN22 will expire 30th June at 2:00 GMT

OILUKAUG22 will expire 30th June at 15:00 GMT

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore has not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.