Morning Brew June 25 2025

Good morning,

There is a flury of news that have the potential to shift market sentiment but it seems the focus is on the Risk on drive.

The S&P 500 seems on track to end June at an all time high with futures right now pointing at a level of 6150 in the S&P 500.

Statistically if May and June were positive in the index, the next of the year is positive as well.

The Nasdaq 100 remains at all time highs at 22500 and th the Dow at 43500. The GER40 is also strong at 23800 but has some 700 points to go before new highs.

In this interesting setup, we will learn the June Inflation data with the US PCE expected at 2.3% and the Core 2.6% today at 14:30 CET.

Jerome Powell stated in his testimony that he expected tariff-inflation to filter through in the June, July and August data, if not he was willing to cut rates. All eyes will be on this single datapoint today

The USD trades near the 3 year low, the USD Index is 97.28 while US ten year yields are at 4.25. EURUSD us at 1.17, GBPUSD 1.3730 and USDJPY 144.30. Gold and Silver ate 3293 and 36.55, Platimum 1383. Ole points out the Bloomberg Commodities Index reversed sharply lower this week, losing around 4%, driven by energy weakness (-9.7%) as the Middle East risk premium collapsed, while crop-supportive weather weighed on the grains sector (-5.2%), and an ongoing correction in tired-looking gold (-2.2%). Partly offsetting these was a strong week across the industrial metal sector, led by a tight supply-led squeeze in copper (+4.8%).

Key Headlines:

• US Durable Goods Orders were massively stronger while the GDP came lower than expected at -0.5% vs -0.2% expected.-
• The US states they signed a trae deal with China on Wednesday
• China`s industrial profits declined in May.
• Rumors Jerome Powells successor will be announced soon weighs on the USD.
• Long time Musk confidante Omead Afshaar has left Tesla acc to reports.

Trade carefully as we are approaching key data into the months End – Mondy is the last day of June… Sharp moves are not unlikely at all..