Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk on on cease fire in the Middle East
Good morning,
Donald Trump surprised markets by announcing a a complete ceasefire, potentially ending a 12-day conflict. In his own words, the ceasefire would last "forever". The situation seems to be still somewhat unclear but current reports from Israel indicate that if may be in force now. Reuters News, traders are hopeful.Oil and Gold fall, US Crude fell to 66.50 Gold 3350 Silver and Platinum are at 36.15 and 1293.
The USD gave up ground with the USD Index falling to 98.10. EURUSD surged above 1.16, GBPUSD rises to 1.3565 and USDJPY falls to 145.40.
Indexes rise with the GER40 23555, the US 500 6060 and the US tech 100 22020.
Ethereum and Bitcoin gain to 2400 and 105000
US Central Bankers Bowman and Waller say they are open to a July rate cut if inflation remains contained. She emphasized focusing on job market risks and noted minimal impacts from trade policy on inflation.
Tesla jumped 8.2% with its driverless taxi debut, and AMD gained 1% after a research upgrade, boosting tech stocks.
The London Metal Exchange faces a major copper squeeze, with spot prices rising due to shrinking inventories. Yesterday spot copper had a $280-a-ton premium over three-month futures, indicating a supply shortage.
Today all eyes will be on any developments in the middle east – will the ceasefire hold? At the same time the Nato summit starts in the Netherlands with Donald Trump expected to join. If the ceasefire holds, it will be a great celebration for him.
Jerome Powell will deliver his semi annual monetary policy report today and tomorrow.
The US 500 is only 1.4% away from all time highs, a break above that level would boost traders confidence, EURUSD is trading at resistance level while the USD Index is on support levels.
Tuesday
Powell speaks
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday