Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Busy week ahead
Good Morning,
We are heading into a busy week with a bit of a consolidation. Despite the hawkish fed and ECB markets were overall strong last week with the Nasdaq up more than 3% and the S&P 500 2.6%. and the USD Index had the worst week in 5 months.
Thomas Barkin and Christopher Waller were on the wires with hawkish statements on Friday but with only marginal impact.
At the moment, the US 500 is trading at 4407, the US 30 34350 the US Tech 100 NAS 15100 and the GER40 16273.
EURUSD is well above the 1.09, GBPUSD above 1.28 and USDJPY remains weak at 141,55. Gold and Silver remain off last weeks lows at 1955 and 24.12. USDTRY seems to be consolidating at 23.60.
Commodities had a strong week and are looking at the best month for a long time: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly-best-month-in-over-a-year-16062023
Please find avery good commentary by Althea on last weeks central bank decisions here: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/the-big-bond-take-federal-reserve-and-european-central-bank-meetings-16062023
Key for this week will be
Monday June 19
Canada PPI
Tuesday June 20
China Loan Rate
German PPI
Earnings: FedEx Corp
Wednesday June 21
UK CPI
CA Retail Sales
Jerome Powell speaks in the House
Thursday June 22
Swiss Rate decision
UK Rate decision
US Jobless Data, Existing Home sales
Jerome Powell speaks in the Senate
Earnings: Accenture PLC, FactSet
Friday June 23
Japan CPI, PMI
UK Retail Sales
DE, NL PMI
EU PMI
US PMI
Earnings: Oracle