Morning Brew June 19 2023

Good Morning,

We are heading into a busy week with a bit of a consolidation. Despite the hawkish fed and ECB markets were overall strong last week with the Nasdaq up more than 3% and the S&P 500 2.6%.  and the USD Index had the worst week in 5 months.

Thomas Barkin and Christopher Waller were on the wires with hawkish statements on Friday but with only marginal impact.

At the moment, the US 500 is trading at 4407, the US 30 34350 the US Tech 100 NAS 15100 and the GER40 16273.

EURUSD is well above the 1.09, GBPUSD above 1.28 and USDJPY remains weak at 141,55. Gold and Silver remain off last weeks lows at 1955 and 24.12. USDTRY seems to be consolidating at 23.60.

Commodities had a  strong week and are looking at the best month for a long time: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly-best-month-in-over-a-year-16062023

Please find avery good commentary by Althea on last weeks central bank decisions here: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/the-big-bond-take-federal-reserve-and-european-central-bank-meetings-16062023

Key for this week will be

• the Chinese rate cuts - stimulus is expected – Goldman Sachs has cut it`s GDP forecast for China by 0.4%
• Sentiment in Big Tech – As our strats poited out, we are in a bubble but how big will it get?
• Jerome Powells appearance Wednesday and Thursday
• Central Banks on Thursday:
  - BOE expected to hike by 25 BPS
  - SNB expected to hike by 25 BPS
  - Turkish Central Bank seen to cut
• Earnings by Accenture on Thursday for insights on actual AI performance.
• Economic releases (See below)

Monday June 19
Canada PPI

Tuesday June 20
China Loan Rate
German PPI

Earnings: FedEx Corp

Wednesday June 21
UK CPI
CA Retail Sales

Jerome Powell speaks in the House

Thursday June 22

Swiss Rate decision
UK Rate decision
US Jobless Data, Existing Home sales
Jerome Powell speaks in the Senate

Earnings: Accenture PLC, FactSet

Friday June 23

Japan CPI, PMI
UK Retail Sales
DE, NL PMI
EU PMI
US PMI

Earnings: Oracle