Morning Brew Jun 17 2025

Good morning,

Hopes of talks to end the escalation in Iran and Israel fueled risk on sentiment yesterday, with equities rising and the USD giving up ground.

Over night, Donald trump not only left the G7 summit early,, citing the tensions in the middle east, he also urged an evacuation of Tehran, an impossible feat, considering app 20% of the Iranian population live in the metropolitan area.

The G7 agreed on a joint statement on the conflict, stating Iran must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons.

Yesterday, the Dow rose 0.75%, the S&P 500 0.94% and the Nasdaq 1.52%, volumes were decent at 18 billion shares. This morning , the GER40 is back at 23500, the US 500 6008, the US TECH 100 NAS 21830.

The USD Index is trading at 98.20 after EURUSD fell to 1.1550, GBPUSD 1.3570 and USDJPY 144.60. Gold and Silver at 3394 and 34.40, Platinum 1250. As expected, Japan left rates unchanged, next up is the US tomorrow.

Oil continues to trade nervously, traders worry about a blockage of the straight of Hormuz. Since last night the US line is up 0.8%.

Bitcoin is at 10700 and Ethereum 2575.

According to a study by IMD, Switzerland is the most competitive country followed by Singapore and HongKonk

Koen took a look at options on Ethereum:

Institutional flows and pure leverage: how to trade the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) with options  BlackRock’s ETHA ETF has emerged as the institutional vehicle of choice for Ethereum exposure, with strong inflows and a liquid options market. This article explores how tactical traders can build synthetic long positions -optionally with downside protection- to mirror ETHA performance with capital efficiency and directional precision.

The German ZEW and US Retail sales are the key scheduled events today. The ZEW Sentiment is expected at -35 and current conditions -75, US Retail sales are seen to come at -0.7%. After the early departure of Donald Trump from the G7 summit and the dire warning, events in the middle east will be closely watched and will likely be the key market driver.

Trade safely and expect bursts of volatility.

Tuesday

• Germany ZEW
• US Retail Sales, Import Prices

  Wednesday

• US Rate Decision
• UK & EU Inflation

  Thursday

• US Holiday
• Switzerland, Sweden UK, Turkey Rate decisions

   

  Friday

• Japan Inflation
• China Rate decision
• UK Retail Sales