Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Morning Brew June 12 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: US CPI and FOMC Key today
Good morning,
US Stocks posted a further record close yesterday as Apple posted the gain I had expected for Monday yesterday. Apple gained 7% or more than 200bio USD or one time the largest German Company SAP. Oracle is up 8% after hours.
The US 500 is 5380, the USTech100 NAS 19232 and the US 30 38780. The GER40 remains stuck below the highs after the election disaster and is trading at 18445.
Yields and USD Index are a little lower at 4.40 and 105.25, EURUSD is at 1.0740, GBPUSD 1.2745 and USDJPY 157.22.
Gold and Silver are a little higher at 2315 and 29.45.
The CPI and the FOMC will be key today after the first round of data is released and any deviation from the expectation will be important for traders as outlined in the articles below
- Japanese Corporate Goods Prices came higher than expected
- China PPI fell less than expected at -1.4% vs -1.5% expected.
- China CPI 0.3% vs 0.4% expected
- German CPI and HICP in line at annual 2.4% and 2.8%.
- UK Industrial Output was worse than expected at -0.9% vs -0.1% expected.
These numbers are not a very clear picture except for confirming the mess the UK is in.,
Key times are now:
14:30 for the US CPI expected at 3.4% and the Core at 3.5%.
20:00 FOMC Rate decision no change expected
20:30 Press Conference with Jerome Powell.
A further topic – even if not the most important today is the French economy and the uncertainty around the snap election. The Yield Spreads between Germany and France are “interesting”
Also, The European Commission will notify car makers on Wednesday that it will provisionally apply additional duties of up to 25% on imported Chinese electric vehicles from next month, the Financial Times reported .
Preparation for today:
Charu: France Election Turmoil: European Equities Amidst the Upheaval
Charu: US CPI and Fed Previews: Delays, but Dovish
Key Data:
Wednesday
Data: China CPI & PPI, DE HICP, UK GDP, US CPI, US Rate Decision
Thursday
Data: US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday
Data: EU Trade Balance, US Import Prices, University of Michigan Sentiment
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...