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10 Year Yields and blue chip stocks fall, tech gains while the USD Index rises ahead of the Fed Minutes
Weak German Data in the form of industrial orders (-3.7% vs 1% expected) and a lower than expected ZEW sentiment (63.3 vs 75.2 expected) caused the EUR and the Dax to slip yesterday. The ISM in the US came weak, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones lost 0.2% and 0.6%, the Nasdaq closes up 0.2% at a new record.
The USD Index rises from 92 to 92.65 before slightly receding to 92.50, the 10 year Yield falls to below 1.4, currently 1.3615.
Bitcoin continues to meander around the 3k level and to have a clear direction, a clear break of 20 or 40000 is required.
Gold and Silver gave up some of their gains yesterday but are off the lows currently 1800 and 26.30. EURUSD is at 1.1825 and Cable at 1.3810.
There are no economic events of great significance on the agenda today but focus will be on the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. There are two key questions:
A hawkish interpretation of the minutes should strengthen the USD. If the USD Index breaks above the 92.75 it should head for the 93.44 level we saw in March. For Equities the tapering question may even be more important than the dot plot.
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Other Headlines:
Nomura is planning to halt parts of prime brokerage business after the Archego disaster
Samsung Electronics stated it is expecting 53% rise in operating profits in Q2 on high chip demand and rising prices.
The U.S. Defense Department stepped back from the cloud computing agreement with Microsoft to include other cloud providers as well. Amazon rose 4.7%.
Didi lost 19.75% yesterday after the Chinese watchdog ordered the company to halt additional downloads of its app due to privacy concerns. Stocks closed at 12.49 vs the IPO price of 16.65. Other NYSE traded Chinese shares also lost.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
7 Jul 2021 | 05:00 | New Zealand | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Output MM | May | 0.5% |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Halifax House Prices MM | Jun | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | |
7 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Forex Reserves CHF | Jun | |
7 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Retail Sales YY | May | 16.45% |
8 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Current Account NSA JPY | May | 1,820.4B |
8 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | IPCA Inflation Index MM | Jun | 0.60% |
8 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 3 Jul, w/e | 350k |
9 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | PPI YY | Jun | 8.8% |
9 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | CPI YY | Jun | 1.3% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Est 3M/3M | May | 3.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate MM | May | 1.5% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate YY | May | 25.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Output MM | May | 1.0% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index MM | Jun | 0.4% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index YY | Jun | 2.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Current Account Balance | May | -3.025B |
9 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | Jun | 195.0k |
9 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 7.7% |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price MM | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price YY | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders MM | May | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders YY | May | |
12 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | CPI YY | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | Total Social Financing | Jun | 2,800.00B | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | M2 Money Supply YY | Jun | 8.2% | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | New Yuan Loans | Jun | 1,800.0B |
(Refinitiv)
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.