Morning Brew July 3 2025

Good morning,

Please note that tomorrow is a US Holiday and you will find the Holiday Trading Schedule below, We also expect the Nonfarm Payroll today

There is a load of headlines, but the full focus today is on the nonfarm payroll, which for the first time since 1998 will be released on a Thursday. It is likely to take some people by surprise. Yesterday the ADP employment came at -33k vs +95k expected and this raised hopes the nonfarm payroll will come below the 110k estimate and open the door for Fed cuts. The probability of a July cut rose to 28% from 22% yesterday. The Benchmark is a nonfarm of 110k, an unemployment rate of  4,3% and average earnings 3.9%. Any strong deviation can case massive moves into the long US weekend. 

Equities traded friendly and the USD is giving up ground, Teck likes the prospect of lower rates, The US500 Is at 6230, the US Tech 100 NAS 22620 and the GER40 23840. Tesla gained 5% yesterday on a rebound,  EURUSD is 1.18, Gold 3360and Silver 36.80. Platinum soared nearly 5% yesterday and is now 1415.

In other news,

• The UK Finance minister is under pressure, yields rose while the GBP lost, always an ugly combination. Cable is 1.3645.
• The US announced 20% tariff on Vietnamese Exports to the US
• China's services activity growth hits 9-month low in June, shows Caixin PMI
• Microsoft will cut app 4% of staff in a bet on AI.
• If you go down to the bottom of this page, you will find our holiday schedule: https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/stocks/trading-conditions

- July 3, 2025 (Thursday)
- China PMI
  - Trade Balance (8:30)–May U.S.

  - Employment Report (8:30)–Jun U.S.

  - Factory Orders (10:00)–May U.S.
  - ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (10:00)–Jun U.S.
  - Factory Orders (10:00)–May F U.S.
  - Merchandise Trade Balance (8:30)–May Canada

- July 4, 2025 (Friday)

  - No major G10 releases (U.S. holiday)

- July 7, 2025 (Monday)

  - Leading Indicators (1:00)–May P Japan

  - Current Account (19:50)–May Japan

  - Trade Balance (19:50)–May Japan

  - Retail Sales (5:00)–May Eurozone

- July 8, 2025 (Tuesday)

  - Consumer Credit (15:00)–May U.S.
- July 9, 2025 (Wednesday)
- China CPI & PPI
- AU rate decision
  - Wholesale Inventories (10:00)–May F U.S.
 - Machine Tool Orders (2:00)–Jun P Japan
- July 10, 2025 (Thursday)
  - No major releases
- July 11, 2025 (Friday)
  - Treasury Statement (14:00)–Jun U.S.
  - Employment Report (8:30)–Jun Canada
  - Building Permits (8:30)–May Canada
  - Industrial Production (2:00)–May U.K.
  - Trade Balance (2:00)–May U.K.