Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Equities recover yesterday while FX stabilizes. Was that it with the selloff or is this just a pause?
Good Morning
Equities recover yesterday while FX stabilizes. Was that it with the selloff or is this just a pause?
Selling pressure subsides during yesterday and overnight, all three US indexes gain more than 1.5% yesterday. Volumes were slightly above average. US 10 year yields rise to 1.20, the USD Index stabilizes at 93 and Bitcoin rises to above 30.000 again. Oil could rise off the 65 to trade at 66.91. Gold and Silver are trading at 1811 and 25.10. Silver remains dangerously close to the key 25 support. Japanese Exports were stronger than expected
Netflix disappoints and falls 3% in the aftermarket, SAP raises it`s guidance, Novartis beats the estimate along with Daimler, Nordea and Julius Baer.
Coca Cola, Johnson&Johnson, Nasdaq, Verizon Texas Instruments and Whirlpool will report today, otherwise the agenda is fairly empty and sentiment will be key.
Tomorrow we are expecting more data and an interesting meeting by the ECB. We expect the ECB to provide insights on its new strategy and to adjust its forward guidance.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Relevance | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
22 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | High | Consumer Confidence | Jul | |
22 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | Business Climate Mfg | Jul | |
22 Jul 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | High | ECB Refinancing Rate | Jul | 0.00% |
22 Jul 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | High | ECB Deposit Rate | Jul | -0.50% |
22 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Initial Jobless Clm | 12 Jul, w/e | |
22 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | High | Existing Home Sales | Jun | 5.90M |
22 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | Euro Zone | High | Consumer Confid. Flash | Jul | -2.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Services PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Comp PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales MM | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales YY | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 64.2 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Service Flash PMI | Jul | 59.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 62.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | 59.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | 60.1 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Composite PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Services PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | High | IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | High | Retail Sales MM | May | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Svcs PMI Flash | Jul |
(Refinitiv)