Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Looking for clues
Good Morning,
It seems the market is feigning breakouts without any clear conviction. Equities are trading near the highs and after they failed to reach new highs for two days, yesterday looked quite negative, currently Indexes are slightly positive.
While Jerome Powell reiterated his stance that current inflation was transitory but failed to spark optimism. The Dow gains +0.15%, the S&P 500 loses 0.33% and the Nasdaq -0.70%. Japan's Nikkei fell below the 28,000. Overall the market seems a bit on the edge but )currently) much less nervous than many news make to appear.
Bitcoin remains near the 30000 support, 10 year rates testing support at 1.3%, the USD Index trades mid-range at 92.50, EURUSD 1.1800 Gold and Silver at 1824 and 26.20.
To put it short, the market is looking for a clear direction and is not sure what the next big driver will be. Next week, earnings, the ECB mandate and global PMIs will of interest. After the Floods in many parts of Europe and the heatwaves in the US and Canada, climate change and measures against it will gin prominence and this could also boost chances of the Green Party in Germany to at least play a prominent role in the next election.
In other news:
Janet Yellen stated concerns about housing affordability and that she expected several more months of high inflation readings.
Japan cuts it’s growth projection to 3.8% from 4% but raised the on the 2022/23 fiscal year from 2.4% to 2.7%
India banned Mastercard for non-compliance with data storage rules from issuing new credit cards next week.
Xiaomi produced more smartphones than Apple in the 2nd quarter.
The US is expected to impose sanctions on a number of Chinese officials.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Relevance | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
16 Jul 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | High | CPI QQ | Q2 | 0.8% |
16 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | High | HICP Final MM | Jun | 0.3% |
16 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | High | HICP Final YY | Jun | 1.9% |
16 Jul 2021 | 14:15 | Canada | High | House Starts, Annualized | Jun | 270.0k |
16 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Retail Sales MM | Jun | -0.4% |
16 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | High | U Mich Sentiment Prelim | Jul | 86.5 |
16 Jul 2021 | Japan | High | JP BOJ Rate Decision | 16 Jul | -0.10% | |
20 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI, Core Nationwide YY | Jun | 0.2% |
20 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI, Overall Nationwide | Jun | |
20 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | High | Milk Auctions | 20 Jul, w/e | |
20 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Housing Starts Number | Jun | 1.590M |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Exports YY | Jun | 46.2% |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Imports YY | Jun | 29.0% |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Trade Balance Total Yen | Jun | 460.0B |
22 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | High | Consumer Confidence | Jul | |
22 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | Business Climate Mfg | Jul | |
22 Jul 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | High | ECB Refinancing Rate | Jul | 0.00% |
22 Jul 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | High | ECB Deposit Rate | Jul | -0.50% |
22 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Initial Jobless Clm | 12 Jul, w/e | |
22 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | High | Existing Home Sales | Jun | 5.90M |
22 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | Euro Zone | High | Consumer Confid. Flash | Jul | -2.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Services PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Comp PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales MM | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales YY | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 64.2 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Service Flash PMI | Jul | 59.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 62.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | 59.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | 60.1 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Composite PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Services PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | High | IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | High | Retail Sales MM | May | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Svcs PMI Flash | Jul |
(Refinitiv)
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.