Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk off and strong USD dominate
Good Morning,
Tomorrow I will not be in the office and not updating the report.
The USD continues to gain, up a full point from yesterday looking at the USD Index – now near the 20 year high.
EURUSD is testing parity at 1.0015. GBPUSD broke below the 1.19 and hit a 2year low. USDJPY is trading at 137.45, Bitcoin falls below 20k again. Gold and Silver fall to 1729 and 18.90 Gold fell to a fresh nine-month low.
Indexes closed lower yesterday and continue the slide, the Dow ended down 0.52%, the S&P 1.15%, and the Nasdaq 2.26%, at the moment, they loose another 0.8%. That is also the case for the European Indexes. Twitter lost 11% and Tesla 6.5% . Volumes in Equities were about 25% below the average.
Today there is little on the economic agenda, only the German ZEW at 11 is of real interest.
The German IG Metall is demanding wages to rise by 8% given the high inflation while German Economy is struggling with the weak Euro and high inflation.
For next weeks ECB rate decision the sentiment has shifted to expect a hike of 0.3% with a probability of 85%, nevertheless EUR remains weak.
Crude Oil is down 2% on growth worries.
Watch for political news and comments to move markets today rather than economic data so sharp moves could come at any point in time.
Tomorrow the US CPI Will be the key event at 14:30, besides that, the UK GDP and the German CPI at 8:00 as well as the EU industrial production will be watched closely.
Trade cautiously!