Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew January 26 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Key Inflation measure up at 14:30 CET

Good Morning

Yesterdays Data and the ECB outlook moved the rate expectation a little. This is in my view the largest market driver at the moment.

Interest Rate Traders see 142 BPS in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year up from 133 yesterday and the ECB is seen to cut 141 BPS form 128 yesterday.

The US Economy grew much stronger than expected but at the same time, the orders for durable goods came lower. Initially it looked like traders were focusing on the GDP number but then is turned and the forward looking Durable goods caused dovish sentiment to come to the forefront.

Indexes ended higher yesterday but gave up ground overnight. The close levels were S&P 500 +0.53%, Nasdaq +0.18%, Dow +0.64%, now we are back to where we were yesterday morning with the US 500 at 4873, the US 30 37907 the US tech 100 NAS and the GER40 16842.

Tesla fell 12% yesterday and erased 80 billion in value on the lower sales forecast and falls to the 9th position of the largest companies, American Airlines gained 10%, IBM 9.5% while Boeing fell 5.7%.

The FTC  ordered Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic and Alphabet companies to provide information about recent multi-billion-dollar investments and partnerships, this is a development worth watching.

US and EU yields fall but Euro lost more than the Dollar, the USD Index gains to 103.59 as the EURUSD drops to 1.0830, GBPUSD to 1.2695 and USDJPY 147.80.

Gold and Silver are 2021 and 22.90 and Oil 76.83 n the US. Bitcoin is hovering around the 40k.

All eyes will be on the PCE data at 14:30 today, the expectations are:

Core PCE Price Index Monthly:  0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Annually 3%
PCE Price Index Monthly:  0.2%
PCE Price Index Annually: 2.6%

Heading into next week, the earing season continues, we will have the next Fed meeting and key economic data including EU inflation and the Nonfarm Payroll will be released.

Have a great day!



The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.