Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Equities rise with the US 30 at 33800, the US500 at 4030, the GER40 is trading at 15200, the USD Index is lower at 101.59, EURUSD rose to above the 1.09 to trade at 1.0920. Cable rose back to 1.24 and USDJPY fell to 129.30.
Gold is testing the 1950 again and Silver the 24.
Technically interesting are the GER40 and EURUSD Gold. If the GER40 breaches the 15270 it has room to 15770, EURUSD is approaching 1.0940, the halfway point of the 2020 to 2022 decline. If Gold manages to breach the 1950, 2000 is in sight.
The Bank of Canada raised rates in line with expectations yesterday and signaled a pause. At the next meeting.
Tesla posted better than expected results and Elon Musk stated that sales in 2023 could hit 2 million cars. In the aftermarket, the share price rose to 152 from 144.43.
Chevron announced a further $75 billion buyback - 22% of it`s marketcap.
To maintain risk on sentiment and reach new levels we will be watching the US GDP as well as the durable goods orders both at 14:30 today, the GDP is seen at 21.6& and the Durable goods at 2.5%. Earnings continue to be a major topic as well.
Thursday
US GDP Advance Durable Goods Orders and Labor Data
Earnings: SAP SE, Visa Inc, LVMH, Christian Dior, Intel Corp, Mastercard Inc, Comcast Corp Diageo PLC, Blackstone Inc
Friday
EU Money Supply
U PCE, Consumption and Conficence
Earnings: American Express Co Chevron Corp
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
NGG3 will expire 26 Jan 2023
TTFMG3 will expire 27 Jan 2023
GCG3 will expire 30 Jan 2023
MGCG3 will expire 30 Jan 2023
HOG3 will expire 31 Jan 2023
RBG3 will expire 31 Jan 2023
Expiring CFDs
NATGASUSFEB23 will expire 25 Jan 2023
GASOLINEUSFEB23 will expire 27 Jan 2023
GOLDFEB23 will expire 27 Jan 2023
HEATINGOILFEB23 will expire 27 Jan 2023
CHINA50JAN23 will expire 30 Jan 2023
HK50JAN23 will expire 30 Jan 2023
TAIWAN95JAN23 will expire 30 Jan 2023
OILUKMAR23 will expire 31 Jan 2023
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.