Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Morning Brew January 10 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: CPI at 7% - Earlier Hikes?
Good morning,
A confirmation that the labor market is near overheating in terms of unemployment and earnings drove rate fears again, even thought outright Nonfarm Payroll number disappointed.
US Indexes dropped and closed the week lower, the Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 1.9% and the Nasdaq 4.5%, the Nasdaq has the worst week in 10 months but is holding on support so far.The German Dax fell below 16000 again to 15950, mid range between the 16250 to the upside and 15750 at the lower end that are the initial levels to watch.
Bitcoin is approaching support at 40000, currently trading at 42000, Gold and Silver are trading near their key supports again at 1792 and 22.20, 1770/1745 and 21,90 are the levels to watch. The Turkish Lira is rising this morning to 13.40.
US Yields rose to 1.765 and are about to rise above the 21 high at 1.77, German long term yields have risen to 0.277 from the December low at -0.13. EURUSD remains in the narrow 1.12/1.14 range while GBPUSD is approaching 1.36 as the next resistance level. The USD Index continues to meander the 96.
GameStop Corp GME.N jumped 7.3% on entering the Crypto space
Today we are looking at the Swedish Production data at 09:30 and the Sentix Index for the EU at 10:30 and the EU Unemployment Rate at 11.
Key for the Week will be the US CPI at 14:30 on Wednesday, expected at a stunning 7% and any hints at US rate policy.
On a political level, Nato and Russia are meeting in Geneva to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the EU and the UK are continuing their meetings.
How sensitive is your portfolio to interest rates?
Growth stocks have got an awful start to the year as a function of the US 10-year yield rising to the highest level in a year showing how growth stocks are more sensitive to higher interest rates. We go through why interest rate sensitivity matter for investors and how to reduce the equity duration risk.
Technical View on Nasdaq:
Nasdaq 100 has bounced off a few points above its strong support area 15.638-15.508. RSI still above 40 i.e. bullish sentiment despite the divergence from November.
A close below is likely to fuel a sell-off down to 15.000 possibly lower to strong support at around 14.480.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...