Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Tense mood without a clear action


Good Morning,

In terms of markets, it was a fairly calm day yesterday, overall Risk gave up some ground a year after the Ukraine invasion. Our Peter Garnry put out a spot-on note on geopolitical risk and stocks to consider. The visit of President Biden in Kiev confirmed the assessment.

“Bubble stocks are up more than 20% this year in a sign of the comeback of reckless gambling behaviour by retail investors. This has been across massive speculation in zero-days-to-expiry options, ridiculous moves in AI-related stocks, and cryptocurrencies. It is all based on a blind spot towards the accelerating geopolitical risks and a naive hope of inflation coming back to the old past.

This morning, the US 500 is trading at 4063 above the 4050 support, the USNAS100 12320 above key support at 13250. The GER40 holds well at 15480 and also noteworthy, the UK 100 is at an all time high.

The USD Index is entrenched at 104 with EURUSD 1.0670, GBPUSD 1.2030 and USDJPY 134. Gold and Silver stable at 1838 and 21.70 

The Swiss Frank traded a little weaker as the Swiss National Bank was "still willing" to be active on the foreign currency markets in pursuing its goal of price stability, Vice Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Monday.acc to Reuters,

Bitcoin is testing the 25k and has gained more than 50% this year.

BHP disappointes in earnings while HSBC delivered a 90+% earnings growth. A weak outlook hempers the stock.

 

Today we are expecting a lot of data on the one hand, on the geopolitical side, Russian President Putin is expected to deliver a speech where he would outline the goals for year two of the war.

Japan's manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in 30 months, the French PMI will be released at 9:15, Germany 9:30, EU 10:00 UK 10:30, US 15:45.

Also, the German ZEW at 11 and the Bank of Canada Rate decision will be closely watched and Wallmart earnings are significant as well. 

Tuesday

Data:  International PMI, German ZEW, Canada CPI

Earnings:   Wallmart, Coinbase, Chesapeake Energy, Toll Brothers

Wednesday:

Data: DE HICP, CPI, IFO, US Minutes

Earnings:   Wix, Garmin, Nvidia, Etsy,

 

Thursday

Data: Turkey Rate decision, US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims

Earnings:   Alibaba, Moderna, wayfair, Nikola, Wish, Beyond Meat

 

Friday

Data: DE GDP PCE University of Michigan

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures

CCH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

CTH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

CLH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

OJH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023

RCH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023

NGH3 will expire 23 Feb 2023

 

Expiring CFDs

NATGASUSMAR23 will expire 22 Feb 2023

TAIWAN95FEB23 will expire 23 Feb 2023

10YUSTNOTEMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

30YUSTBONDMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

COPPERUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

CORNMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

GASOLINEUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

HEATINGOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SILVERMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANMEALMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SUGARNYMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

WHEATMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore has not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.