Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Tense mood without a clear action


Good Morning,

In terms of markets, it was a fairly calm day yesterday, overall Risk gave up some ground a year after the Ukraine invasion. Our Peter Garnry put out a spot-on note on geopolitical risk and stocks to consider. The visit of President Biden in Kiev confirmed the assessment.

“Bubble stocks are up more than 20% this year in a sign of the comeback of reckless gambling behaviour by retail investors. This has been across massive speculation in zero-days-to-expiry options, ridiculous moves in AI-related stocks, and cryptocurrencies. It is all based on a blind spot towards the accelerating geopolitical risks and a naive hope of inflation coming back to the old past.

This morning, the US 500 is trading at 4063 above the 4050 support, the USNAS100 12320 above key support at 13250. The GER40 holds well at 15480 and also noteworthy, the UK 100 is at an all time high.

The USD Index is entrenched at 104 with EURUSD 1.0670, GBPUSD 1.2030 and USDJPY 134. Gold and Silver stable at 1838 and 21.70 

The Swiss Frank traded a little weaker as the Swiss National Bank was "still willing" to be active on the foreign currency markets in pursuing its goal of price stability, Vice Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Monday.acc to Reuters,

Bitcoin is testing the 25k and has gained more than 50% this year.

BHP disappointes in earnings while HSBC delivered a 90+% earnings growth. A weak outlook hempers the stock.

 

Today we are expecting a lot of data on the one hand, on the geopolitical side, Russian President Putin is expected to deliver a speech where he would outline the goals for year two of the war.

Japan's manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in 30 months, the French PMI will be released at 9:15, Germany 9:30, EU 10:00 UK 10:30, US 15:45.

Also, the German ZEW at 11 and the Bank of Canada Rate decision will be closely watched and Wallmart earnings are significant as well. 

Tuesday

Data:  International PMI, German ZEW, Canada CPI

Earnings:   Wallmart, Coinbase, Chesapeake Energy, Toll Brothers

Wednesday:

Data: DE HICP, CPI, IFO, US Minutes

Earnings:   Wix, Garmin, Nvidia, Etsy,

 

Thursday

Data: Turkey Rate decision, US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims

Earnings:   Alibaba, Moderna, wayfair, Nikola, Wish, Beyond Meat

 

Friday

Data: DE GDP PCE University of Michigan

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures

CCH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

CTH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

CLH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

OJH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023

RCH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023

NGH3 will expire 23 Feb 2023

 

Expiring CFDs

NATGASUSMAR23 will expire 22 Feb 2023

TAIWAN95FEB23 will expire 23 Feb 2023

10YUSTNOTEMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

30YUSTBONDMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

COPPERUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

CORNMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

GASOLINEUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

HEATINGOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SILVERMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANMEALMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SUGARNYMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

WHEATMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

 

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