Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Tense mood without a clear action
Good Morning,
In terms of markets, it was a fairly calm day yesterday, overall Risk gave up some ground a year after the Ukraine invasion. Our Peter Garnry put out a spot-on note on geopolitical risk and stocks to consider. The visit of President Biden in Kiev confirmed the assessment.
“Bubble stocks are up more than 20% this year in a sign of the comeback of reckless gambling behaviour by retail investors. This has been across massive speculation in zero-days-to-expiry options, ridiculous moves in AI-related stocks, and cryptocurrencies. It is all based on a blind spot towards the accelerating geopolitical risks and a naive hope of inflation coming back to the old past.”
This morning, the US 500 is trading at 4063 above the 4050 support, the USNAS100 12320 above key support at 13250. The GER40 holds well at 15480 and also noteworthy, the UK 100 is at an all time high.
The USD Index is entrenched at 104 with EURUSD 1.0670, GBPUSD 1.2030 and USDJPY 134. Gold and Silver stable at 1838 and 21.70
The Swiss Frank traded a little weaker as the Swiss National Bank was "still willing" to be active on the foreign currency markets in pursuing its goal of price stability, Vice Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Monday.acc to Reuters,
Bitcoin is testing the 25k and has gained more than 50% this year.
BHP disappointes in earnings while HSBC delivered a 90+% earnings growth. A weak outlook hempers the stock.
Today we are expecting a lot of data on the one hand, on the geopolitical side, Russian President Putin is expected to deliver a speech where he would outline the goals for year two of the war.
Japan's manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in 30 months, the French PMI will be released at 9:15, Germany 9:30, EU 10:00 UK 10:30, US 15:45.
Also, the German ZEW at 11 and the Bank of Canada Rate decision will be closely watched and Wallmart earnings are significant as well.
Tuesday
Data: International PMI, German ZEW, Canada CPI
Earnings: Wallmart, Coinbase, Chesapeake Energy, Toll Brothers
Wednesday:
Data: DE HICP, CPI, IFO, US Minutes
Earnings: Wix, Garmin, Nvidia, Etsy,
Thursday
Data: Turkey Rate decision, US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims
Earnings: Alibaba, Moderna, wayfair, Nikola, Wish, Beyond Meat
Friday
Data: DE GDP PCE University of Michigan
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
CCH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023
CTH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023
CLH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023
OJH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023
RCH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023
NGH3 will expire 23 Feb 2023
Expiring CFDs
NATGASUSMAR23 will expire 22 Feb 2023
TAIWAN95FEB23 will expire 23 Feb 2023
10YUSTNOTEMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
30YUSTBONDMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
COPPERUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
CORNMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
GASOLINEUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
HEATINGOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
SILVERMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
SOYBEANMEALMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
SOYBEANOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
SOYBEANSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
SUGARNYMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
WHEATMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.