Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 20 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Dovish speakers lead USD and Rates off the peak, Fed Minutes PCE and Geopolitics may move markets.


Good Morning,

Remember the US are celebrating George Washington’s birthday and stocks will remain closed,

Equities were mixed on Friday with more dovish comments from Fed-Speakers and some profit taking in Tech. US farm equipment maker John Deere gained  7.5% while Moderna Inc fell 3.3% after its experimental messenger RNA-based influenza vaccine delivered mixed results in a study. Lithium miners Livent Corp, lbemarle Corp and Piedmont Lithium slumped between 9% and 12% due to concerns about weakness in Chinese demand.

The S&P 500 fell by -0.28%, the Nasdaq dropped -0.58% but he Dow +0.39%.

The USD Index retreated to below 104 again and 2 year yields fell to 4.64 again. EURUSD is near 1.07 and GBPUSD trades at 1.2040. USDJPOY 134.10 and USDCHF 0.9240.  Gold and Silver traded at key supports but subsequently bounced off recovery to 1844 and 21.76. Next key support for Gold is at 1828 and $1800 before the 200DMA at 1776 .

Silver delivered an interesting end of day rally and managed to close above the 21 Level, the 200d Moving average and also the weekly 200 and 50 averages.

Low inventories support copper, along with hops of a Chinese demand recovery. We bounced off the 200d MA last week that is at 401.30.

Looking ahead the story remains in US rates and the US growth story to make or break the market, while news that China may support Russia with arms deliveries cause geopolitical worries that have not affected markets so far it seems. 

This week there are massive Futures and CFD expiries (below) that may prove significant. 

The Fed Minutes will provide insights to the fed deliberations but may not be as important as the last meeting was before the high nonfarm Payroll and high inflation.

More important my be the PCE Data that is the feds favorite inflation indicator on Friday.

Tuesday

Data:  International PMI, German ZEW, Canada CPI

Earnings:   Wallmart, Coinbase, Chesapeake Energy, Toll Brothers

Wednesday:

Data: DE HICP, CPI, IFO, US Minutes

Earnings:   Wix, Garmin, Nvidia, Etsy,

 

Thursday

Data: Turkey Rate decision, US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims

Earnings:   Alibaba, Moderna, wayfair, Nikola, Wish, Beyond Meat

 

Friday

Data: DE GDP PCE University of Michigan

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures

PAH3 will expire 20 Feb 2023

CCH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

CTH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

CLH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

OJH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023

RCH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023

NGH3 will expire 23 Feb 2023

 

Expiring CFDs

COCOANYMAR23 will expire 20 Feb 2023

COTTONMAR23 will expire 20 Feb 2023

NATGASUSMAR23 will expire 22 Feb 2023

TAIWAN95FEB23 will expire 23 Feb 2023

10YUSTNOTEMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

30YUSTBONDMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

COPPERUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

CORNMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

GASOLINEUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

HEATINGOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SILVERMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANMEALMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SUGARNYMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

WHEATMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

 

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