Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 14 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning

The higher than expected achieved two major things, causes a selloff of risk across the board on the one hand, it also adjusted the traders expectation close to the Feds projection of the rate path.

The Fed was expecting to cut 3 times this year while the traders had seen 6 cuts in the beginning of the year and are now at 3.5 ( a cut is 25 basis points)

10 Year Yields rose to 4.33 and the USD Index rose to 104.70, EURUSD 1.0720, GBPUSD 1.2565 after the CPI came lower than expected - USDJPY 150.50 and Gold and Silver 1991 and 22.00.

The US 500 lost the 5k and fell to 4957, yesterdays close was 1.4% lower for the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq  lost 1.8%, the Russel 2000 lost 4.3% in the largest drop since June 22 and the Vix rose a full point. Koen comments: “Yesterday's CPI data release, coming in above expectations, significantly jolted the markets, propelling the VIX to an intraday peak of $17.94 before settling at $15.85 (+1.92 | +13.78%). This marked the highest VIX level since the onset of the last rally in early November. Accompanying this surge, the VVIX and SKEW indices also experienced substantial increases, up 10.11% and 11.60%, showing that nervousness is far from gone. “

Peter Garny had pointed our yesterday that the valuation of Arm was exaggerated, yesterday the stock declined by 19%.

Key articles:

Technical Update - ASML top and reversal pattern, indicators suggesting larger correction

 What is driving cocoa's sweet price?

Sticky US inflation could make dollar strength more durable

Episode 7 of 'Saxo Options Talk': the strategy of put spreads

From here, todays agenda is fairly thin after the UK Inflation came a little lower than expected. and we can expect seesawing to adjust to the new rate expectations. One of the drivers behind the high CPI print in the US was shelter which is less represented in the PCE number – that realization could spark hopes for a lower PCE print at the next read on the 29th but that is uncertain.

Trade very carefully!!

- Data UK CPI, EU GDP,
- Earnings: Sony, Heineken, CME, Cisco, Occidental Petroleum,

- Data JP GDP, UK GDP US Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Bostic speaks,
- Earnings: Schneider, Stellantis, Applied Materials, Airbus, Deere, Safran,

- Data US PPI

- Earnings: Eni


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.