Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew December 7 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Uncertainty ahead of Key Events

Good Morning

Nervousness is hitting markets ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll tomorrow and the rate decisions next week. In the US, 5 cuts are priced in by December 24, the first full cut is priced in May. In Europe, the ECB is seen to lower rates by 140 basis points in the next year – nearly 6 cuts. A lower ADP Employment number and growing Chinese Exporst fail to convince traders, Indexes gave up ground yesterday and continue to drop overnight. The Swiss National Bank is seen to cut rates by 130 basis points. The big question is if this dovish scenario is really realistic and we need a really low Nonfarm Payroll number to confirm it.

10 Year Yields in the US are still at 4.17 so 80 Basis points from the peak, the USD Index has broken the 104 again to the upside.

The US 500 is trading at 4543, the Dow 36000 and the US Tech 100 NAS 15766. The GER40 is holding at 16600 – still very strong at almost a 10% gain in the past month.

EURUSD is on support at 1.0765, GBPUSD 1.2555 and USDJPY is trading lower on hopes of BOF action, it is at 145.90.

Gold has stabilized at 2030 and XAG fell below he 24 – this causes the Gold Silver ratio to rise from nearly 80 to 85.

Oil fell to a 6 month low yesterday with US Crude below the 70.

Large Banks are putting out their outlooks for 2024 and the range seems to be fairly wide. Deutsche Bank sees the S&P 500 at 5100 at year end, Goldman Sachs at 4700 and JP Morgan at 4200.

The key today will be the initial jobless claims as a hint for the Nonfarm Payroll and to a lesser degree the EU GDP as well as employment data.

- Data China Trade, EU GDP, US Initial Jobless claims

- Data Japan GDP US Nonfarm Payrolls


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.