Details Cookies
Important margin product information
CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.56% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, forex spot transactions or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take high risk of losing your money.
Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew December 16 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Bad Data is Bad

 Good Morning,

A combination of hawkish central banks and bad US economic data drove equities lower and boosted the USD. Interestingly the disappointing retail sales and the extremely disappointing NY Fed Manufacturing Index did not spark hopes of faster rate cuts but raised worries on strength of the economy.

All central banks hiked in line with expectations yesterday but the ECB surprised by tightening earlier than previously expected, as inflation remains high.

The Dow  lost 2.25%, the S&P 500 down 2.5%, and the Nasdaq 3.23%. on a high volume day. Volume was 20% above the average. Netflix and Nvidia were significant losers at -8.6% and -4%.  The German Dax fell 400 points to 14000 a significant support level as the August high.

The USD Index had a volatile day, 103.50 was the low, 104.80the high and we are now at 104.40. EURUSD is trading at 1.0646 after severe swings up to above 1.07 on the hawkish ECB, GBPUSD fell from 1.2434 to below 1.22. Gold and Silver remained weak at 1779 and 22.95.

Today we are expecting the UK retail sales at 8:00 and PMI data from across the world with France at 9:15, Germany at 9:30, the EU at 10:00, the UK at 10:30, Italy 11:00 and the US at 15:45. At 11 we will see the release of the EU HICP expected at 10%.

The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) said it has full access firms in China for the first time ever, averting a trading ban in the US, the US also authorized a record $858 billion in defense spending.

The quarterly expiry could also be relevant today as the shift in levels has been significant. Sharp moves around the cutoff times are not unlikely as levels could be defended of the defense being given up after the event.

Next week, there is little top tier economic news (US GDP on Thursday and Durable Goods Friday the exception) so I except today to be the last high trading volume day unless we see significant surprises. Many traders and investors are still hoping for year end rally to let their performance look better but after yesterday that seems less likely – it would have to start today or Monday.



The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.