Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Central Bank Week and Apple near 3 bio market cap
Good morning,
Central Bank Week is Upon us
This week will be dominated by central bank meetings with the most important ones the US Fed on Wednesday and the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and Danmarks Nationalbank on Thursday and the Bank of Japan and the Russian Central Bank on Friday.
The only change of rates is expected in Russia, overall the focus will be on the FOMC initially. A faster pace of tapering is widely expected – even if the US CPI on Friday did not come out higher than expected but largely in line.
On that, Equities gained and closed higher with the Dow up 0.60%, the S&P 500 0.95%, and the Nasdaq 0.73%. Elon Musk tweeted he was thinking about quitting his job, shares rose despite that by 1.3%. Oracle gained 15% on a strong outlook. Apple rose 2.8% pushing it`s market cap to near the 3bio USD at 2.944.
The USD can gain slightly over the weekend with the USD rising to 96.25., EURUSD trades at 1.1285 and GBPUSD at 1.3225. Gold and Silver make up most losses from Friday to trade at 1785 and 22.25. Bitcoin remains at 49k. The Turkish Lita broke above 14 against the USD at 14.05
The European Central Bank is set to halve the amount of assets it buys each month from April, according to a Reuters poll,
Credit Suisse announced a restructuring of it`s board this morning, any steps against Horta-Osorio for violating Covid restrictions are not yet included.
Biden signed his stimulus package on Saturday.
Today there is little on the agenda, worth keeping an eye on is comments from Fed members. In the last year there had been comments ahead of key events that moved the market.
Measures against Covid could be important as Israel is adding more countries tot eh restricted list and the UK seemed to prepare the population for restrictions.
Remain on your toes
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.