Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew August 4 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Calm markets - Risk on


Good Morning

The S&P500 closed at a new record yesterday at 4423. The Dow and Nasdaq also end app 0.8/0.55% higher. Caixn Services PM rises to 54.9 after 50.3 last month, pulling Asian equities up.

Toyota posts a  record quarterly operating profit of USD $9.2 billion,  BMW and Stelantis warn the chip shortage will hurt production numbers significantly in the 2nd half of the year and possibly beyond. Under Armour and Ralph Lauren raise their guidance and gain 6%. Sony reports a 26% rise in quarterly profit. European Indexes tend towards the upper end of their recent range.

The USD Index is little moved at 92.04, EURUSD at 1.1870 and Cable at 1.3930. Gold hovers at 1813 and Silver 25.65. Bitcoin trades just below the 39k

The NZ unemployment fell to 4%, much better  than the expected 4.5% boosting the Kiwi by 0.5%

The rest of the day we are expecting a number of international PMIs, which could confirm risk on or off sentiment, other key items will be the US infrastructure deal and any further Chinese market intervention. There are no first line earnings today except for GM but lots of 2ndd tier including Uber and Roku.  Focus is already shifting the US Nonfarm Payroll on Friday for indications on the tapering. Equities rely on the Fed as a lifeline.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

Unit

4 Aug 2021

00:45

New Zealand

HLFS Unemployment Rate

Q2

4.5%

Percent

4 Aug 2021

00:45

New Zealand

Labour Cost Index - QQ

Q2

0.7%

Percent

4 Aug 2021

00:45

New Zealand

Labour Cost Index - YY

Q2

2.1%

Percent

4 Aug 2021

02:30

Japan

Services PMI

Jul

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Retail Sales MM Final

Jun

-1.8%

Percent

4 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Retail Trade

Q2

0.9%

Percent

4 Aug 2021

03:45

China (Mainland)

Caixin Services PMI

Jul

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Reserve Assets Total

Jul

USD

4 Aug 2021

09:50

France

Markit Serv PMI

Jul

57.0

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

09:50

France

Markit Comp PMI

Jul

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Services PMI

Jul

62.2

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Comp Final PMI

Jul

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Serv Final PMI

Jul

60.4

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Comp Final PMI

Jul

60.6

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Services PMI

Jul

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Composite PMI

Jul

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Comp Final PMI

Jul

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Svcs PMI Final

Jul

Index (diffusion)

4 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

ISM N-Mfg PMI

Jul

60.4

Index

4 Aug 2021

23:00

Brazil

Selic Interest Rate

4 Aug

5.25%

Percent

5 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Trade Balance G&S (A$)

Jun

10,450M

AUD

5 Aug 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Orders MM

Jun

1.5%

Percent

5 Aug 2021

13:00

United Kingdom

BOE Bank Rate

Aug

0.10%

Percent

5 Aug 2021

13:00

United Kingdom

GB BOE QE Corp

Aug

20B

GBP

5 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

International Trade $

Jun

-73.9B

USD

5 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

31 Jul, w/e

380k

Person

5 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

Trade Balance C$

Jun

-0.80B

CAD

6 Aug 2021

05:00

New Zealand

Reserve Assets Total

Jul

NZD

6 Aug 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Output MM

Jun

0.5%

Percent

6 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Halifax House Prices MM

Jul

Percent

6 Aug 2021

08:00

Norway

Reserve Assets Total

Jul

NOK

6 Aug 2021

08:45

France

Reserve Assets Total

Jul

EUR

6 Aug 2021

09:00

Switzerland

Forex Reserves CHF

Jul

CHF

6 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Non-Farm Payrolls

Jul

900k

Person

6 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Unemployment Rate

Jul

5.7%

Percent

6 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Average Earnings YY

Jul

3.9%

Percent

6 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

Employment Change

Jul

150.0k

Person

6 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

Unemployment Rate

Jul

7.4%

Percent

7 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

Exports YY

Jul

Percent

7 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

Imports YY

Jul

Percent

7 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

Trade Balance USD

Jul

USD

9 Aug 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

PPI YY

Jul

Percent

9 Aug 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

CPI YY

Jul

Percent

(Refinitiv)

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