Morning Brew August 14 2025

Good Morning,

The Dow rose by 0.88%, while the S&P 500 increased by only 0.2%, and the Nasdaq by 0.11%. The Nasdaq and S&P closed at an all-time high, whereas the Dow is still 1% away from its peak. Scott Bessent mentioned that he sees a half-point rate cut as possible after the weak employment data. With this statement, he shifted the rate cut expectation to 92% in favor of a 25 basis point cut in September, with 8% in favor of a 50 basis point cut. Austan Goolsbee reiterated that the Fed is grappling with understanding whether tariffs will push up inflation temporarily or more persistently, which is a key basis for the Fed's rate path under Powell, at least.

Tech stocks traded mixed yesterday, with Apple and SAP moving higher and Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir declining. Bloomberg News reported that Apple is looking to venture into AI-powered robots, home security, and smart displays. The most noteworthy shares were CoreWeave, down more than 20%, and Paramount Skydance, up more than 35%.

US yields fell to 3.86% for the 1-year, while the 10-year yield is at 4.23%. The EUR/USD is at 1.187, GBP/USD at 1.3575, and USD/JPY at 146.40. Gold remains stable at 3360, and Silver is higher at 38.55.

Ethereum continues its ascent, currently at 4735, while Bitcoin managed to test 123k. The crypto exchange "Bullish" closed the day at 92, with its IPO price at 37.

Ole commented on the grain market:

• The USDA projects record U.S. corn production and higher ending stocks, weighing heavily on prices.
• Soybeans are supported by a smaller-than-expected crop and a tighter balance sheet.
• Wheat follows corn lower due to ample global supplies.

Donald Trump threatened "severe consequences" if Russia's Vladimir Putin does not agree to peace in Ukraine. A second meeting, which may include Zelensky, could follow the initial meeting soon.

There is a good deal of data coming out today, but I would argue that nothing on the agenda should have a significant market impact. Attention is already shifting to Chinese and US retail sales tomorrow, and any positive or negative outcome from the Russia/US Summit in Alaska will be much more significant. As of now, I could not verify the exact time of the meeting.

Trade safely as traders remain optimistically cautious—staying in the market but ready to exit if conditions change abruptly

Thursday August 14

• UK GDP
• France CPI
• EU GDP
• US Initital Jobless Claims , PPI Machine Manufacturing
• Speakers: Barkin,
  Earnings: First Majestic, JD.com. JohnDeere

Friday August 15

• Japan GDP
• Planned Meeting Trump/Putin in Alaska
• China Retail sales
• US Retail Sales, University of Michigan