Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Markets Looking for clues - Are good news good or bad?
Good Morning,
Equities traded moderately friendly yesterday while the USD gained strength on higher rates and profit taking. The Dow rose 0.3%, S&P 0.33% and Nasdaq 0.28%. the GER40 seesawed a bit and is now where we were yesterday morning at 15820. The USD Index gained to 102 and EURUSD fell to 1.0940, GBPUSD 1.25 and USD rose to 134,35. Bitcoin dropped below 30000 and Gold and Silver are at 2000 and 25.08.
China`s economy grew faster than expected at 4.5% vs 4% expected and the UK employment figures came stronger than expected.
Google dropped 2.7% on after a report that Samsung Electronics considering replacing Google with Microsoft Bing as the default search engine on its devices.
UBS is adapting it`s buyback program due to the takeover of credit Suisse. UBS had planned to buy back shares for USD 6 bio and cancel them – parts of those will now be used for the takeover.
From a trading point of view it is quite tricky to read the market at the moment. We are looking at earnings, economic data, geopolitics and sentiment trying to gauge direction. Today we are expecting earnings by BoA and Goldman Sachs as the key releases, good numbers could be read as a further requirement for rate hikes by the fed. It seems equities are taking good news as good and bad news as bad, FX is seeing good news as hawkish.
The German ZEW, US Housing Starts and the Canadian CPI will be the most important economic events alongside earnings today that have the potential to move markets,
The European Parliament holds its final vote to approve climate change policies.
Tuesday 18 April
Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, United Airlines, Lockheed Martin, Intuitive Surigical, Ericsson
Wednesday 19 April
Tesla, Morgan Stanley, US Bancorp, Zions,Citizens Financial, IBM, Alcoa, Abbott Lab, Lam Research, Las Vegas Sands, Metro, ASML, Heineken
Thursday 20 April
Blackstone, American Express, Comerica, Fifth Third, Huntington, KeyCorp, Sunovus, AT&T, Union Pacific, CSX, Philip Morris, DR Horton, CATL, Tryg, Nokia, Sartorius
Friday 21 April
Procter & Gamble, Regions Financial, Schlumberger, Freeport-McMoRan, Jinko Solar, SAP, Sandvik, Investor
Tuesday 18 April
Wednesday 19 April
Thursday 20 April
Friday 21 April
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.