Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Are you set up for the green transformation?
Good Morning,
Solid Bank earnings on Friday (See Peter`s comment below) caused the expectation for a May hike by the Fed to solidify. The Probability rose to now 80% and the market prices in only 30 basis points in cuts in December.
Jerome Powell had stated in his last FOMC Press conference that tighter credit control by commercial banks had the same effect as rate hikes. 2 Year Yields rose to 4.1% and the yield curve remains massively inverted. Fed speakers towards the end of the week will be closely watched.
The USD Index rose from 100.80 to now 101.60, EURUSD is trading back below the 1.10 at 1.0990 , GBPUSD fell to 1.2415 and USDJPY rose to 133.90 USDCHF 89.30.
Gold and Silver sold off on Friday but seem to be more stable now at 2012 and 25.45. Bitcoin gave up some ground to now trade at 30.000.
In Equities, we continue to trade friendly, the US500 rose to 4143 and seems on track for the major 4200 level, the GER40 trades above 15800 with the 16000 in scope if the sentiment holds.
The G7 set aggressive collective targets for solar power and e wind energy, to quicker phase-out of fossil fuels. Check if your portfolio is set up to gain from the green transition – if you agree with it or not.
The three major US banks JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup have reported Q1 earnings all showing strong growth in net interest income and higher than estimated earnings. From a relative perspective it is clear from the deposit figures and provisions from credit losses that JPMorgan Chase was the big winner and the market reaction today is reflecting this. While the three banks are all mentioning that they have not tightened their credit conditions, Well Fargo says that consumer spending has softened in late Q1.
The week ahead we are fully in the earning season and expectations are rather low, this means there could be a positive surprise , the week is also loaded with economic data and central bank speakers.
Focus may well shift between inflation / Banking Crisis (and the fallout) and earnings so we are like to have a great week for trading. Investors should review their portfolio for the green transformation.
This week’s key earnings releases:
Monday 17 April
Charles Schwab, M&T, Eve Energy, Exor
Tuesday 18 April
Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, United Airlines, Lockheed Martin, Intuitive Surigical, Ericsson
Wednesday 19 April
Tesla, Morgan Stanley, US Bancorp, Zions,Citizens Financial, IBM, Alcoa, Abbott Lab, Lam Research, Las Vegas Sands, Metro, ASML, Heineken
Thursday 20 April
Blackstone, American Express, Comerica, Fifth Third, Huntington, KeyCorp, Sunovus, AT&T, Union Pacific, CSX, Philip Morris, DR Horton, CATL, Tryg, Nokia, Sartorius
Friday 21 April
Procter & Gamble, Regions Financial, Schlumberger, Freeport-McMoRan, Jinko Solar, SAP, Sandvik, Investor
Monday 17 April
Tuesday 18 April
Wednesday 19 April
Thursday 20 April
Friday 21 April
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy