Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew Augist 16 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning,

Stocks tick higher in the US on Friday as Dax breaches 16000 for the first time ever, the Dow gained 0.04%, the SP5’’ 0.16% and the Nasdaq 0.04%.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment  was reported at the lowest level since 2011, weakening the USD and giving Gold, Silver and EURUSD some relief.

Weak Chinese data data over night weighs on Asian Equities and Index futures globally, the Industrial output for July was reported at +6.4% y/y 1.4% below expectation and also lower than last month. Retail Sales were released at 8.5% against an expectation of 11.5%.

The USD Index fell to 92.50 after a high on 93.20 last week, Gold and Silver recover to 1772 and 23.55, EURUSD 1.1788 and Cable at 1.3850. 10 Year rates recede to 1.255.

The Taliban took over Kabul in a massive embarrassment to western politicians who spent billions in an attempt to pacify and structure a functioning state.

Bitcoin exceeds 47k, Ethereum also gains 7.8% to trade at 3280.

Retail Sales tomorrow and negotiations around the US infrastructure program and the debt ceiling are likely to dominate the week.  Nancy Pelosy is apparently trying to link the two items.

We are approaching the Jackson Hole conference where it is expected that the FED will at least hint very strongly at how rates and tapering are planned to proceed, comments ahead of the meeting can be expected to gauge market sentiment so trade carefully.

Equities remain at extremely high levels and the global stock/GDP ratio has never been as high.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ

Q2

0.2%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Annualised

Q2

0.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Prelim

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Capital Expend.

Q2

1.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ External Demand

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

01:55

South Korea

Export Growth Revised

Jul

16 Aug 2021

01:55

South Korea

Import Growth Revised

Jul

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Urban Investment (YTD)YY

Jul

11.3%

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Industrial Output YY

Jul

7.8%

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Retail Sales YY

Jul

11.5%

16 Aug 2021

12:00

Euro Zone

Reserve Assets Total

Jul

16 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

NY Fed Manufacturing

Aug

29.00

16 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

Manufacturing Sales MM

Jun

2.5%

16 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

Wholesale Trade MM

Jun

-2.0%

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

Total Social Financing

Jul

1,700.00B

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

M2 Money Supply YY

Jul

8.7%

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

New Yuan Loans

Jul

1,200.0B

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

Outstanding Loan Growth

Jul

12.3%

13 Aug 2021

Brazil

IBC-BR EconomicActivity

Jun

0.40%

17 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Claimant Count Unem Chng

Jul

17 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

ILO Unemployment Rate

Jun

4.8%

17 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Employment Change

Jun

17 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY

Jun

8.7%

17 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus)

Jun

7.4%

17 Aug 2021

09:30

Netherlands

GDP Prelim SA QQ

Q2

17 Aug 2021

09:30

Netherlands

GDP Prelim NSA YY

Q2

17 Aug 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

GDP Flash Estimate QQ

Q2

2.0%

17 Aug 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

GDP Flash Estimate YY

Q2

13.7%

17 Aug 2021

14:15

Canada

House Starts, Annualized

Jul

275.0k

17 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Retail Sales MM

Jul

-0.2%

17 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM

Jul

0.2%

17 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Retail Control

Jul

0.1%

17 Aug 2021

15:15

United States

Industrial Production MM

Jul

0.5%

17 Aug 2021

15:15

United States

Capacity Utilization SA

Jul

75.7%

17 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

Business Inventories MM

Jun

0.8%

17 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

NAHB Housing Market Indx

Aug

80

18 Aug 2021

00:45

New Zealand

PPI - Inputs QQ

Q2

18 Aug 2021

00:45

New Zealand

PPI - Outputs QQ

Q2

18 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Machinery Orders MM

Jun

-2.8%

18 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Machinery Orders YY

Jun

15.8%

18 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Exports YY

Jul

39.0%

18 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Imports YY

Jul

35.1%

18 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Trade Balance Total Yen

Jul

202.3B

18 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Wage Price Index QQ

Q2

0.6%

18 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Wage Price Index YY

Q2

1.9%

18 Aug 2021

04:00

New Zealand

Cash Rate

18 Aug

0.50%

18 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

CPI MM

Jul

0.3%

18 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

CPI YY

Jul

2.3%

18 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

RPI MM

Jul

0.4%

18 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

RPI YY

Jul

3.7%

18 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

RPIX YY

Jul

18 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

PPI Input Prices MM NSA

Jul

18 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

PPI Input Prices YY NSA

Jul

18 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

PPI Output Prices MM NSA

Jul

0.4%

18 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

PPI Output Prices YY NSA

Jul

18 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

PPI Core Output MM NSA

Jul

18 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

PPI Core Output YY NSA

Jul

18 Aug 2021

09:00

Austria

HICP MM

Jul

18 Aug 2021

09:00

Austria

HICP YY

Jul

18 Aug 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP Final MM

Jul

-0.1%

18 Aug 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP Final YY

Jul

2.2%

18 Aug 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP-X F, E, A, T Final MM

Jul

-0.4%

18 Aug 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP-X F,E,A&T Final YY

Jul

0.7%

18 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Building Permits: Number

Jul

1.610M

18 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Housing Starts Number

Jul

1.602M

18 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

CPI Inflation MM

Jul

0.3%

18 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

CPI Inflation YY

Jul

3.4%

18 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

CPI BoC Core YY

Jul

18 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

CPI BoC Core MM

Jul

19 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Employment

Jul

-46.2k

19 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Participation Rate

Jul

66.0%

19 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Unemployment Rate

Jul

5.0%

19 Aug 2021

10:00

Norway

Key Policy Rate

19 Aug

0.00%

19 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

14 Aug, w/e

360k

19 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Cont Jobless Clm

7 Aug, w/e

2.800M

19 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Philly Fed Business Indx

Aug

25.0

20 Aug 2021

01:01

United Kingdom

GfK Consumer Confidence

Aug

-7

20 Aug 2021

01:30

Japan

CPI, Core Nationwide YY

Jul

-0.4%

20 Aug 2021

01:30

Japan

CPI, Overall Nationwide

Jul

20 Aug 2021

08:00

Germany

Producer Prices MM

Jul

0.8%

20 Aug 2021

08:00

Germany

Producer Prices YY

Jul

9.2%

20 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Retail Sales MM

Jul

0.5%

20 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM

Jul

0.3%

20 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Retail Sales YY

Jul

6.4%

20 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Retail Sales Ex-Fuel YY

Jul

5.3%

20 Aug 2021

08:00

Norway

GDP Growth

Q2

20 Aug 2021

08:00

Norway

GDP Growth Mainland

Q2

1.7%

20 Aug 2021

08:00

Norway

GDP Month

Jun

20 Aug 2021

08:00

Norway

GDP Month Mainland

Jun

20 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

Retail Sales MM

Jun

4.4%

20 Aug 2021

14:30

Canada

Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM

Jun

4.4%

23 Aug 2021

01:00

Australia

Mfg PMI Flash

Aug

23 Aug 2021

01:00

Australia

Services PMI Flash

Aug

23 Aug 2021

01:00

Australia

Comp PMI Flash

Aug

23 Aug 2021

02:30

Japan

Jibun Bank Mfg PMI Flash

Aug

23 Aug 2021

08:00

Denmark

Consumer Confidence

Aug

23 Aug 2021

09:15

France

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

09:15

France

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

09:15

France

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

09:30

Germany

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

09:30

Germany

Markit Service Flash PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

09:30

Germany

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Flash Composite PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Flash Services PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

12:00

United Kingdom

CBI Trends - Orders

Aug

23 Aug 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

23 Aug 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Mfg PMI Flash

Aug

23 Aug 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Svcs PMI Flash

Aug

23 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

Existing Home Sales

Jul

5.85M

23 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

Exist. Home Sales % Chg

Jul

23 Aug 2021

16:00

Euro Zone

Consumer Confid. Flash

Aug

(Refinitiv)

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