Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning Brew -May 27
Saxo Bank
Good Morning
Inflation worries and tapering discussions drove US Interest rates off the lows, This caused the USD Index to rise back above the 90 level, EURUSD below 1.22 Gold to 1898 and Silver to 27.65. Indexes Fall slightly but without large moves. Tomorrows release of the PCE at 14:30 CET will bring the next real impulse it seems.
(refinitiv)
There are lots of news but none sufficient to have a clear directional impact.
China's Industrial Earnings Growth slowed down in April due to high commodity prices while the U.S. Trade Representative stated the US faced "very large challenges" in its trade and economic relationship with China.
Nvidia Corp forecast second-quarter revenue above analysts' estimates on Wednesday, but shares fell 1% after-hours
The ECB is looking to launch it`s crypto currency in 2025.
European banks have a considerable upside potential over the coming year if the mean reversion in the German 10-year yield continues amid rising global inflation. A steeper yield curve and positive yields in Europe could take European banks' price-to-book ratio back to the recent historical average of 0.8x and then beyond. The industry has improved over the past years with Deutsche Bank being put forth as an example of Europe's banking industry coming out of a long hibernation.
Economic Events for the next few days:
Date | Time CET | Country/Region | Relevance | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
27 May 2021 | 03:00 | South Korea | High | Bank of Korea Base Rate | May | 0.50% |
27 May 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | High | Capital Expenditure | Q1 | 2.0% |
27 May 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Durable Goods | Apr | 0.7% |
27 May 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | GDP 2nd Estimate | Q1 | 6.5% |
27 May 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Initial Jobless Clm | 22 May, w/e | 425k |
28 May 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI Tokyo Ex fresh food YY | May | -0.2% |
28 May 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI, Overall Tokyo | May | |
28 May 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | Jobs/Applicants Ratio | Apr | 1.10 |
28 May 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | Unemployment Rate | Apr | 2.7% |
28 May 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | GDP QQ Final | Q1 | 0.4% |
28 May 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | GDP QQ Final | Q1 | 0.4% |
28 May 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | May | 1.8% |
28 May 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | High | KOF Indicator | May | 136.0 |
28 May 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | High | Consumer Confid. Final | May | -5.1 |
28 May 2021 | 13:00 | Brazil | High | IGP-M Inflation Index | May | 4.00% |
28 May 2021 | 13:00 | Angola | High | Interest Rate | 31 May | |
28 May 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Consumption, Adjusted MM | Apr | 0.5% |
28 May 2021 | 16:00 | United States | High | U Mich Sentiment Final | May | 82.9 |
28 May 2021 | 22:00 | Colombia | High | Interest Rate | May | |
31 May 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA | Apr | |
31 May 2021 | 03:00 | China (Mainland) | High | NBS Manufacturing PMI | May | |
31 May 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | High | GDP QQ Prelim | Q1 | |
31 May 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | High | GDP YY Prelim | Q1 | |
31 May 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | High | Unemployment Rate | Apr | |
31 May 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | High | GDP Quarterly YY | Q1 | |
31 May 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | High | Official Reserves Assets CHF | Apr | |
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(Refinitiv)
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